A Week Away from Election Day – Top 3 Takeaways – October 29th, 2024
- A week away from Election Day. A kid before Christmas. Joel before the Dolphins' first game of the season. Those are examples of how many of us feel as we’re now only a week away from Election Day with anticipation running high in the most important presidential election of our lives. And where do the candidates stand as we’re now only a week away from Election Day? Awfully close to one another if you look at the polls, perhaps not quite as close to one another if you look at Trump’s history and performance with these polls and most importantly votes cast at actual polls. In the RealClear Politics Polling average yesterday, Donald Trump was shown with a 0.1% lead nationally – as close of a lead you can get. But where was Trump on the same date four and eights year ago today? Trailing Joe Biden by 7.5-points and Hillary Clinton by 4.6-points. 0.1% sounds awfully close. Trump running nearly eight points better than four years ago when he lost but also nearly 5-points better than eight years ago when he won, doesn’t necessarily sound as though the national popular vote is in reality so close. In the top battleground states Donald Trump is shown with an average 0.9% lead in the polls – again something that looks super close. Although... four years ago, Joe Biden was shown with an average 3.9% lead in the Battleground polls and eight years ago Hillary Clinton was shown with a 3.5% advantage in those same polls. Trump running nearly 5-points ahead in the battlegrounds over when he lost four years ago and about 4.5-points ahead of where he was when he won eight years ago, paints a picture that’s once again not necessarily all that close. And then there’s the accounting for actual votes. Democrats currently lead Republicans in voter turnout with the early vote (both in person and through vote by mail ballots) by 2%. That also sounds especially close. But then when you consider that Democrats led Republicans in voter turnout by 14.3% four years ago, the 12-point improvement in the partisan splits doesn’t necessarily sound as though it’s so close. There's one thing that is consistent within all three of these data points as we’re only a week away from Election Day. The race appears to be close but with a slight Trump advantage. That is if the political polls are more accurate this time and if it turns out that the early vote gains by Republicans don’t sustain through Election Day. We won’t know until we get there of course. For now, though, it can empirically be said that Donald Trump is the best positioned to win that he’s been one week away from Election Day in any of his three presidential elections. As for the...
- State of Florida a week away from Election Day... The state appears to be redder than ever. Yes, Republicans hold a record 1 million+ voter advantage in the state of Florida, yes Florida’s gone from being considered the ultimate swing state to a red state, no elections should never be taken for granted. Florida’s Republicans don't appear to be taking it for granted. By midday Monday 38% of Florida’s eligible Republican voters had already voted, compared to 33% voter turnout overall, meaning Republicans haven’t just been voting with a big advantage in voter registration going in, but are also leading in relative turnout regardless of the size of the lead. By way of comparison, Florida’s Democrats held a 1.4% advantage in voter turnout prior to Election Day four years ago, Florida’s Republicans held an 11-point advantage in turnout as of yesterday. Somewhat remarkably, nationally the change in partisan splits has been 12.3 points towards Republicans over four years ago. In Florida the change is nearly identical at 12.4 points towards Republicans. In other words, the trends that we’re seeing in Florida are consistent with the trends we’re seeing across the country, and this is different than two years ago in the midterm elections when Republicans had a historically good Election Day in Florida and a generally disappointing performance outside of it. And then there’s...
- The state of Palm Beach County a week away from Election Day. Four years ago, heading into Election Day, Palm Beach County’s Democrats led Republicans in turnout by 23-points- literally doubling the turnout of Republicans in the process. As of yesterday, Palm Beach County’s Democrats led Republicans in turnout by only 6-points, a remarkable 17-point swing over four years ago (and a number that’s been consistently improving by the day through Early in-person voting) and a trend that’s even stronger than what we’ve seen nationally or generally across the state of Florida. Palm Beach County voted for the entire Republican cabinet in the 2022 midterms for the first time in the county’s history. If the current turnout trends hold, we could see Palm Beach County break for Republicans near, or perhaps even at the top of the ticket this time around as well. There’s very little polling taking place locally as Florida’s not viewed as being competitive the way it once was and with Congressional seats held by Reps like Lois Frankel and Jared Moskowitz not being considered toss ups. However, if the current trends hold, and if NPA voters locally mostly break for the GOP the way they did two years ago, there could be a number of surprises that play out locally on Election Day that have an impact across the state and potentially across the country.