Swing State Takeaways 6 Days from Election Day – Top 3 Takeaways – October 30th, 2024
- The swing states. In yesterday’s Top 3 Takeaways I broke down what’s happening with the early vote nationally, in Florida, and in Palm Beach County. In case you missed it...the trends from top to bottom were and are especially favorable for Trump and presumably Republicans down ballot. In today’s takeaways, as we’re now under a week away from Election Day, let’s start by looking at the changes with political polls in the seven most closely watched swing states...Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Four years ago, how many of those seven swing states do you think Trump held a polling lead in on this date? What’s the answer? Zero. How about on this date eight years ago? The answer is one – Georgia a state he did go onto win (in total Trump won six of the seven swings states). How many of these swing states does Trump hold a lead in as of today? Six. Yes, the former and perhaps future president of the United States holds a polling lead in six of the seven most closely watched swing states as of today and is only trailing by 0.3% in Michigan due to a Susquehanna poll yesterday that showed Harris up 5 in the state in what currently looks an outlier.
- Nevertheless, Donald Trump is running an average of 5-points better today in the seven most closely watched swing states compared to four years ago today. That’s an impressive feat. And that takes us to the early voting trends in these states that figure to be decisive in determining who the next president will be. Let’s take them one by one starting with Arizona. In 2020 Democrats held a 3% turnout advantage heading into Election Day within the state. Today Republicans lead in Arizona by seven points within the state. That’s a ten-point turnout turnaround so far. In 2020, Georgia’s Republicans led in the early vote by close to 5-points entering Election Day, Republicans hold a 4-point advantage in the state as of today. That’s a 1-point advantage to Democrats as of now. In Michigan, four years ago, Democrats held a two-point turnout advantage heading into Election Day – today that’s been stretched to an 8-point advantage for a six-point positive swing in the state for Democrats thus far. In Nevada, four years ago Democrats took a 4-point turnout advantage into Election Day, today Republicans currently lead the way with a 5-point turnout edge – for a nine-point positive swing for the GOP. In North Carolina, Democrats held a 24% turnout lead heading into Election Day 2020 (in a state that Trump went on to win). As of today, Republicans lead with way with a one percent lead in the state for whopping 25-point swing in turnout towards the GOP. In Pennsylvania, Democrats took an incredible 41-point turnout lead into Election Day in 2020, as of today, that advantage is down to 18-points for a big swing of 23-points towards the GOP. And last but least there’s Wisconsin. Four years ago, Republicans took an estimated 9-point advantage into Election Day and currently Democrats lead in turnout by 11 for a big 20-point swing. Now some of these differences are based upon the different ways that early voting takes place between states today compared to the crazy way the 2020 election cycle played in the middle of a pandemic. Some of the differences have to do with where we are in the cycle with early voting in some of these states. For example, what we consistently see is that Democrats are leading with votes by mail with Republicans most commonly leading with early in person voting as is the case in Florida. But what we also see is that...
- The turnout trend is a bit of a mixed bag but one that ultimately is to the benefit of Trump. According to the seven swing states Trump is currently performing better with the early vote in 4 of the critical states. If he went on to win those four, he could lose the other three and still win the presidency. Remember how Donald Trump was performing about 5-points better in the swing state polls compared to four years ago? Republicans are performing an average of 5.7-points better in the early vote in those states compared to four years ago. Much like yesterday’s breakdown of the country, this state and Palm Beach County...once again, we see the trends in these comparisons (the polls and actual votes) moving in a nearly identical direction. Just for drill yesterday after accounting for all these votes I ran a projection of the election simply based on the 2020 election outcomes in each state, compared to the early voting trends these states as of yesterday. What was the result? Trump winning a razor thin election by a 271-267 margin. In my Anatomy of a Swing State series today, I’m showing Trump with a 291-247 advantage. So, the point is as we’re now only six days away from Election Day. The trend has been Trump’s friend, and if you were the presidential candidate today and you could choose whose position you’d prefer to be in – it's objectively better to be in Trump’s. However, it’s important to remember that while the trends are in Trump’s favor in comparison to four years ago, he must have stronger trends than he did four years ago to be able to win. What we’re currently seeing is that as of now he’s just barely trending well enough, in enough places to be the best positioned to win but that if the election were today, it’d likely be an especially close race. In fact, the closest since 2000. This election is shaping up to be a classic turnout election and by that, I mean that every day of voting during this election season is especially important. Turnout is pacing below 2020’s levels to the general benefit of Trump and likely Republicans down ballot. There’s no guarantee that from one day to the next it will remain that way or what exactly turnout will be on Election Day with many Republicans who previously had voted on Election Day choosing to vote early instead. In other words, voters should take nothing for granted and to continue to prioritizing voting early as it provides the political parties with a greater opportunity to turnout less reliable voters on Election Day, that may prove to be the difference in the presidential race. We’ve seen the previous two presidential elections come down to small margins in a few states. This election is currently pacing towards a similar race.