How Florida Was Won
Bottom Line: Shortly after the 2008 Presidential election when Barack Obama successfully flipped Florida blue, I coined a phrase. For Republicans to win in Florida, they need to lose well in South Florida. What that most specifically meant was that Republicans needed to make the case for their agenda in South Florida’s “blue wall” counties of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami Dade. It meant Republican candidates needed to take a genuine interest in the diverse interests of South Floridians to earn their votes. Starting with Rick Scott’s gubernatorial campaign we began to see that take place, and by the 2022 midterms, we saw that it was not only possible for Republicans to “lose well” in South Florida’s blue counties, but to win them – at least Miami Dade and Palm Beach anyway.
As we’re now a week removed from the election here are a few election takeaways from Florida:
- There are now a record number of elected Republicans top to bottom in Florida
- The 2022 red wave wasn’t an outlier or high watermark for Republicans within the state
- South Florida’s blue wall no longer exists
Republicans already held a supermajority in the state legislature but managed to add to that majority in this cycle. That happened in large part due to Republicans winning essentially all swing districts across the state, including many in formerly “blue counties”. On that note, here are the counties with Democrat voter registration majorities that voted for DeSantis for governor in 2022, and Trump for president this year:
- Duval
- Hillsborough
- Miami Dade
- Osceola
And as for South Florida’s “blue wall”, here’s the performance by Trump over each of his three presidential elections.
Here’s Trump’s 2016 performance by county:
- Broward: -35%
- Miami-Dade: -30%
- Palm Beach County: -15%
Now Trump’s 2020 loss in each county:
- Broward: -30%
- Miami-Dade: -7%
- Palm Beach County: -13%
Here's Trump’s 2024 performance:
- Broward: -17%
- Miami-Dade: +11%
- Palm Beach County: -1%
Here’s the Trump change overtime:
- Broward: +18%
- Miami-Dade: +41%
- Palm Beach County: +14%
Over the past decade plus we’ve seen Florida’s three largest counties shift the most politically. No longer do Republicans need to “lose well” in South Florida in order to win the state. Republicans are now able to win in South Florida which is why Florida is now solidly a red state. It’s a remarkable political transformation that’s taken place, and that continues to take place, due to the continued efforts of Republican politicians to engage, participate and compete at all levels of government – from President Trump on down.
South Florida demographically represents the future of our state, but also in many ways the country. That’s why Trump flipped Arizona and Nevada, but also why he performed as well as he did in Texas, where he won by 14 – points.