Q&A of the Day – What Will Happen w/Marco Rubio’s Senate Seat?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
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Today’s Entry: Submitted via Talkback - What will happen with Rubio’s senate seat?
Bottom Line: That’s a good question. The process by which Marco Rubio’s senate seat will be filled is clear. What isn’t, is who will be in it, or how long they may seek to retain it. At the same time Governor DeSantis’ future political ambitions will be apparent in this process as well. So yes, on Tuesday, President-Elect Donald Trump tapped Florida’s senior Senator Marco Rubio to become the next Secretary of State. This is something I’d suggested would be the most likely outcome in a second Trump administration for several months.
Marco was reelected in 2022 meaning that he will have only completed a third of the six-year senate term. Under Florida law, it will be up to Governor DeSantis to appoint a replacement who will then serve for the next two years, to January of 2027. There will be a special election held in the 2026 midterms that will determine who will finish Rubio’s term which concludes in January of 2029. In other words, the appointment could be as short as two years, or could set the stage for someone who would seek to hold that seat in years to come.
Obviously, a senate seat in any state is a highly sought after position. But it’s an especially sought after office in our state in part due to the incredible success of the state’s Republican Party. Florida’s Republican bench is deep and crowded. Consider, for example, that there are four, rather young, sitting Republicans who’ve each won two statewide elections, and as a result are term limited in their current offices. Those four: Governor Ron DeSantis, Lt. Governor Jeanette Nunez, Attorney General Ashley Moody, CFO/Chief Fire Marshall Jimmy Patronis. That’s independent of any other Florida politicos who make seek higher office. Now, in the case of Nunez, Moody, and Patronis, they may opt to run for governor, as that’s one office that will be vacated in just over two years. But even then, that’s a talented and crowded primary that would leave two at a minimum on the outside looking in. The most notable name, is the term limited governor who will be making Rubio’s appointment.
This is a dynamic I spoke to when asked about DeSantis’s future in July. As I said at the time: There’s a very good chance Marco Rubio could serve within the Trump administration. I feel there’s a strong chance he could be the next Secretary of State. If that were to happen DeSantis would select someone to fill that seat. If that happened there’s the possibility DeSantis could eye that seat for himself when it would come back up for election. If that were the case, he would place a person in the seat who had no intention of running to keep it, a la what Charlie Crist once did with George Lemieux. If DeSantis would be set on running for president, you would know under that scenario, by his appointment of one of the many talented Republicans on the state’s incredibly deep bench that would potentially be posited to run for and to retain that seat for many years to come.
Therefore, it’s my view that we’ll know what Governor DeSantis’s intentions are politically, based upon whom he names as Rubio’s successor. Clearly, given his failed primary challenge to Trump, DeSantis has presidential aspirations. However, DeSantis’s decision to challenge Trump in the presidential primary tarnished his brand with many base Republican voters nationally. What's more is that Vice President-Elect JD Vance was clearly picked by Trump to be his successor. Four years as Trump’s vice president and a future Trump endorsement for Vance against DeSantis, would be a lot for Ron to have to overcome yet again – independent of the somewhat tarnished brand. That’s not to say it’s not possible, and looking three years into the political future might as well be an eternity, however these are the considerations that will be in play as DeSantis will make this decision in just a couple of months. Will DeSantis seek the senate seat for himself, or will he attempt another presidential run? We’ll essentially know based upon how this decision goes. The wheels are rapidly in motion for the second Trump presidency, and in the process, they’re shaping the future of Florida’s political scene as well.