Q&A of the Day – Will Trump’s Cabinet Picks Risk the GOP House Majority?
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio I know that a senator is replaced by their governor. But what happens with all the empty seats in the House that Trump appointees are leaving? Will the Republicans lose control because of it?
Bottom Line: This is an excellent question and a hot topic of conversation as President-elect Trump has now nominated three reelected members of the House of Representatives to cabinet posts. I’ll break down the dynamic involved with each of the three candidates in addition to the considerations in play with the current ‘lame duck’ congress in addition to the prospects for a GOP house majority in the next congress. The three nominees are:
- Matt Gaetz: Attorney General
- Elise Stefanik: UN Ambassador
- Mike Waltz: National Security Adviser
Notably, Gaetz and Stefanik’s appointments require senate confirmation, while Waltz’s post doesn’t require senate confirmation. Stefanik and Waltz have yet to tender resignations for their seats while Gaetz has. That’s significant in the context of this conversation. More on that one in a minute. Let’s dive into the logistics of what comes next with each of these House seats... because this is where politics and gamesmanship can come into play.
- Gaetz: Florida’s 1st Congressional District
- Waltz: Florida’s 6th Congressional District
Under Florida law the governor is to direct the Secretary of State to schedule special elections to fill these seats. There’s a great deal of latitude as to the timing of the special elections. In 2021, following the passing of Democrat Alcee Hastings, DeSantis didn’t direct the special election to take place until ten months after the vacancy – allowing for the vacancy of a deep-blue Democrat House seat for a total of 280 days. This time around DeSantis has wasted no time.
Yesterday Governor DeSantis announced this on X: Congratulations to the Floridians being appointed to key positions in the Trump Administration: Senator Marco Rubio, Congressman Matt Gaetz, and Congressman Mike Waltz. I've instructed Secretary of State Cord Byrd to formulate and announce a schedule for the upcoming special elections immediately.
DeSantis clearly is wasting no time in moving the process along. Under state law there is to be time for a qualifying process (primary), and the general election must take place at least two weeks after the qualifying election. In theory it may be possible for both of these special elections to take place in time for the elected representatives to be on hand for the start of the next Congress in January. Matt Gaetz won his reelection by 32-points with Waltz winning by 33-points in what are two of Florida’s reddest congressional districts. They’re safe Republican holds in the special elections.
What’s interesting is that while Gaetz has resigned, meaning he’s no longer a member of the House officially creating the vacancy, Waltz hasn’t as of now – yet DeSantis’ note suggests he’s moving forward with his special election as well. That’s notable for the current lame duck session. More on that in a moment. That takes us to Stefanik’s seat in New York.
New York law is more specific than Florida’s regarding the timeline for a special election to be held to replace a congressional vacancy. Under New York law, the governor must call a special election within 10 days of a seat becoming vacant. As of now, Stefanik remains active in the House for the lame duck session. Stefanik won reelection to her seat by 24-points making her seat a likely GOP hold when a special election to replace her takes place – whenever that might be based upon the specific timing of Stefanik’s resignation. So, about the timing and expected size of the Republican congressional majority...
In real-time, factoring in the Gaetz resignation, there are 220 Republicans in the House compared to 213 Democrats, leaving Republicans with a narrow seven seat majority. Under any scenario, regardless vacancies, provided that Republicans maintain at least 218 seats, they will retain control of the chamber. Therefore, even if for example, both Stefanik and Waltz resigned prior to January, Republicans would still be able to retain a majority within the chamber. That move is risky, with these margins, however. Let’s say, heaven forbid, multiple Republican members of the House died before January and all three appointees vacated their seats. There is, at that point, an unlikely scenario under which Democrats may be able to seize control in the lame duck and pass a host of left-wing dream items prior to the new congress and Trump’s swearing in.
For that reason, if not for policy reasons, like important budgeting for next year that’s taking place in the current lame duck, you may see Stefanik and perhaps Waltz play it a bit more conservatively than Gaetz (who had personal motivations to leave the House as he was under an ethics investigation) did. As for the lay of the land in the next congress...
Republicans currently hold the upper hand with 218 seats won to 211 for Democrats. Of the remaining six seats, Democrats have leads in three seats while Republicans have leads in three. If all finish as they’re currently indicated, Republicans will have a 221-214 majority based on November’s election results. Republicans could have three vacancies in the House carry over into the next congress and still maintain the majority with 218 seats. Of course, that’s an “if” based on how the outstanding races finish. It also adds to the sense of urgency DeSantis has shown in setting the special elections.