Trump’s Success in His First Two Weeks & A Pivotal Third Week

Trump’s Success in His First Two Weeks & A Pivotal Third Week – Top 3 Takeaways – February 3rd, 2025 

  1. Picking up the pace. Today marks two weeks since Donald Trump once again became President of the United States. I’m reminded of a mug my cousin sent me a picture of on Christmas Day that says: I love when I wake up in the morning & Donald Trump is President. That’s exactly how I feel these days. There’s no doubt that there’s a natural comfort which comes with President Trump and his America First policies that juxtaposes with the daily Biden administration failings (truth be told even some never Trumpers are probably more at ease). But anyway, as we take account of the frenetic pace of Trump’s record setting rollout of policies, we’ve seen that it wasn’t just a fast first week. Team Trump only picked up the pace during the second week. Over Trump’s second week we had 13 new executive orders – including the three from this weekend which imposed tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico. Trump saw four members of cabinet confirmed – and importantly for his agenda – all cabinet members that have come up for a vote have been confirmed. President Trump signed his first law – the Laken Riley Act to help assure that much of his administration's illegal immigration stance will survive his administration. And speaking of illegal immigration, detentions and deportations are at the forefront of the Trump administration's accelerating pace. During President Trump’s first full week ICE averaged 593 arrests of illegal immigrants who were targeted for deportation, while issuing an average of 449 detainers with local law enforcement agencies. This insures that criminal illegal immigrants will be turned over to them for deportation upon completing sentences as opposed to be released back into society as was standard operating procedure under the Biden administration. Week two saw that ICE was nearly, literally, twice as busy as during Trump’s first week. Average daily arrests topped a thousand a day (1,008) nearly doubling the week one pace with an average of 832 detainers being issued daily as well. All in through the Trump administration's first 11 days (which is the most recent ICE info we have), a total of 13,368 criminal illegal immigrants have either been arrested and tagged for deportation or are targeted for deportation as soon as they get out of jail. That’s an average of 1,215 criminals that aren’t or won’t be on our streets per day (double the number of the Biden administration) with the pace that’s picking up steam. But while ICE has been and still is picking up the pace with arrests and deportations, the pace of those attempting to illegally enter our country is dramatically decreasing. Attempted border crossings are down over 70% through Trump’s first two weeks with daily attempts having dropped below 600. So, in other words, even if every attempt to enter our country illegally (or to game the asylum system) was successful we’d still be removing illegals at twice the pace (and they’re not – in fact one day last week we had no ‘gottaways’ for the first day since Trump’s previous administration). What all of this means is that Trump is starting to see success to significance in key administration policies. So, what about week three? It has the makings to be President Trump’s... 
  2. Most pivotal week. The week features key votes on Trump’s most controversial remaining cabinet nominees – including RFK Jr. for Health and Human Services Secretary and likely Kash Patel for FBI Director and Tulsi Gabbard for the Director of National Intelligence. We’re also likely to get a confirmation vote for Florida’s former AG, Pam Bondi, to become the nation’s AG. Will Trump get his entire team? This will be the week we’ll likely see. Also, particularly pivotal this week is Thursday's deadline for Federal employees working remotely to accept President Trump’s offer for eight months of pay if they self-deport from the federal workforce by that day. Notably, only 32% of the federal workforce never works remotely – meaning fewer than 1 million of the federal government’s 3 million employees aren’t at risk of being fired by President Trump’s mandate to return to the office. Notably, 14% of the entire federal workforce, or 420,000 employees, have never once reported to the office. As team DOGE looks to reduce the size of the federal government, starting with a literal reduction in the size of the bureaucracy, this will be a key week based upon how many people will still be working within it by the end of the week. But it also figures to be an important week for the... 
  3. Economy. During Trump’s first presidency he used tariffs masterfully in carrying out policy that increased US manufacturing and increased US employment, while leading to lower inflation and the highest standard of living increase for the average American since the Clinton administration. Critics were proved wrong about his tariffs and his tax policies as his “America First” agenda brought widespread prosperity prior to COVID-19. Will we see that play out again? How will the financial markets react to President Trump’s tariff’s implemented Saturday on Canada, China and Mexico? That will provide the first peak as these tariffs are the first major economic policy of Trump’s second presidency. One thing is for sure...this week will be busy again. 

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