Q&A of the Day – The Trump Administration's Self Deportation Plan
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio Any idea how many illegals have self deported yet?
Bottom Line: Deportations and illegal immigration have without a doubt been one of the hottest topics during the first month of the Trump administration. While the media’s focus has largely centered around ICE arrests, relocations and early deportations of illegal immigrants – the Trump administration has hoped that many will opt for “self deportation”. In fact, Border Czar Tom Homan was talking about the potential for mass self deportations prior to the Trump administration having been sworn in. In December Homan was actively encouraging those in the country illegally to “self deport and leave on their own behalf”, as opposed to waiting for ICE to find them. On Monday that was taken to another level.
Effective this week, at the direction of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, an ad campaign has been rolled out nationally encouraging illegal immigrants to leave the country voluntarily. In the press release announcing the campaign DHS said:
This series of ads will run on radio, broadcast, and digital, in multiple countries and regions in various dialects. Ads will be hyper-targeted, including through social media, text message and digital to reach illegal immigrants in the interior of the United States, as well as internationally.
There are two ads. One aimed at those already in the country illegally and the other targeting those in other countries who’re considering attempting to immigrate illegally.
The domestic ad is focused on self deportation. The ad is presented by Noem who says:
Thank you, President Donald J. Trump, for securing our border and putting America first. President Trump has a clear message: if you are here illegally, we will find you and deport you. You will never return. But if you leave now, you may have an opportunity to return and enjoy our freedom and live the American Dream.
The international ad, also presented by Noem states this: If you are considering entering the US illegally, don’t even think about it. Let me be clear. If you come to our country and you break our laws, we will hunt you down.
There’s no ambiguity there...
If you search around online, you’ll find numerous specific stories of individuals/families who’ve been interviewed (by often sympathetic news outlets), talking about self-deportation. With that said, there still aren’t hard estimates of how many illegal immigrants have already left the country or that are in the process of doing so (and there may never be). However, a recent Center for Immigration Studies analysis shows the view of the possible.
As the CIS analysis outlines...
- 22 million – estimated total number of illegal immigrants in US
- 7.2 million – estimated total number of illegal immigrants who’ve entered the US (and are still here) from the Biden administration (more likely in time when asylum processes have run their course in the courts)
- 670,000 criminal illegal immigrants
- 1.3 million asylum seekers who’d been ordered to be removed by courts but haven’t been
It’s believed ICE’s presence in many communities is most likely to activate and encourage many of the nearly 2 million illegal immigrants who either have criminal records, or have been removed to be ordered by courts, to leave on their own as opposed to being subjected to formal ICE deportation proceedings. The combination of ICE’s focus on these two categories of illegal immigrants, and general knowledge of who these people are and where they live increases the likelihood they’ll be caught and deported. It’s believed many would prefer to leave on their own terms.
Additionally, it’s likely that many of the future illegal immigrants that are already in the country (bogus asylum seekers – which is over 90% of all asylum seekers), may decide to leave once they’ve either not reported for check-ins or court dates or complete the process and are ordered to be removed by the courts. This means approximately 40% of illegal immigrants in this country are likely to be especially concerned about the potential for the Trump administration to identify, find and deport them and thus are the most likely candidates to potentially self deport.
Time will obviously tell how this will play out, however the more effective ICE is in carrying out arrests and deportations, and the more visible they are in many communities, the more likely it becomes for those who aren’t here legally to feel that it’s not worth having to worry each day about whether it's the day they’ll be apprehended.