Border Bombshell: Self Deportations Reach Record Levels – Top 3 Takeaways, August 15th, 2025
Takeaway #1: Policy Power
You’ll occasionally hear me say that I’ve not made a career out of being wrong. I’m saying that again today because my earliest research on the potential impact of the Trump administration's implementation of it’s deportation plan on February 19th , in my story: The Trump Administration's Self Deportation Plan concluded this: ICE’s presence in many communities is most likely to activate and encourage many of the nearly 2 million illegal immigrants who either have criminal records, or have been removed to be ordered by courts, to leave on their own as opposed to being subjected to formal ICE deportation proceedings. The combination of ICE’s focus on these two categories of illegal immigrants, and general knowledge of who these people are and where they live increases the likelihood they’ll be caught and deported. It’s believed many would prefer to leave on their own terms. Fast forward six months and what is it that we’ve seen... In a stunning reversal of Biden’s open border insanity new analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies reveals a dramatic plunge in the U.S. foreign-born population – exceeding 2 million people, with most of the decrease coming in the form of what appears to be self-deporting warm and fluffies (illegal immigrants). Drawing from raw data in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey, CIS highlights what appears to be the direct impact of heightened ICE enforcement and power policy shifts under the Trump administration. Let's dive deeper into the numbers, the why, and the what-it-means. The CPS data shows a jaw-dropping 2.2 million drop in the total foreign-born population (encompassing legal immigrants, temporary visitors, and illegals) from January to July 2025. That's the largest six-month decline ever recorded within a single year since the survey began. Statistically significant at the 99% confidence level, this plunge is entirely among non-citizens, with naturalized citizens actually increasing by about 373,000. Why the exodus? CIS points to ramped-up enforcement, high-profile deportations, and continued emphasis on combating illegal immigration... a la the buildout of new detention centers like Alligator Alcatraz. So about the scam artist magic “A” word people (Biden-era asylum seekers – 88% of which were found to have had no valid asylum claim last year) specifically...
Takeaway #2: Deporting from the Shadows
So of the 2.2 million fewer foreign born people remaining within the United States these days how many were illegal immigrants specifically? Here's where it gets most interesting—the illegal population is estimated to have shrunk by a whopping 1.6 million between January and July. CIS arrives at this by subtracting post-1980 legal immigrants (factoring in deaths and out-migration) from the total foreign-born in the Census Population Survey, adjusting for undercounts. Corroborating evidence? A 10% drop in non-citizens from Latin America arriving post-1980—a group that overlaps heavily with illegals, making up three-quarters of them per DHS and Pew Research. This aligns with border encounter data showing 80% were from this region during the Biden open-border surge. How big of a deal is this? Over the first 6+ months of the Trump administration there were more illegal immigrants leaving the country per month, an average of 267 thousand, than had come into the country per month on average during the Biden administration.
Takeaway #3: The fallout
Of course the implications of this mass illegal immigration out-migration are many. Significantly less crime as non-citizens had been committing crimes at a rate that was greater than 900%+ higher than the average American. Lower inflation, as demand for resources, starting with affordable housing, skyrocketed along with the massive influx of illegal immigrants. The self-deportations take the pressure off of government spending, open up additional affordable housing and just generally create less demand for things which should ease pricing pressures (and that may well account for why inflation has been lower than what economists have expected to this point in the year). But there’s also the labor market picture too, yet another dynamic I’ve highlighted after each of the previous two months jobs reports. Employed foreign-born workers fell by 1 million, while U.S.-born employment surged by 2.5 million. This explains sluggish overall job growth in the in the ADP Report and BLS monthly survey (though not the absurd initial reporting followed by massive subsequent revisions with the government numbers). Fewer illegal workers mean less low-wage labor flooding the market. For Americans and legal immigrants, it's a boon—tighter labor could hike wages and lure sidelined workers back in. It’s looks like Border Barbie’s ads and self-deportation plans have been working as well as could have been possibly planned. On that notes Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem had this to say to JusttheNews when commenting on what she’s hearing from officials in other countries: Over and over again, I’m hearing that hundreds of thousands of their citizens are coming home, voluntarily.