Illegal Aliens Fleeing Florida & Comey’s Odds of Time in the Clink – Top 3 Takeaways, September 29th, 2025
Takeaway #1: Fleeing Florida
In Friday’s top three takeaways I mentioned this... The Department of Homeland Security has confirmed a record number of deportations have been taking place. According to DHS, as of this week, over 2 million illegal aliens have deported this year. Most of them by choice. According to the fact sheet, 400,000 formal deportations have now taken place while 1.6 million self-deportations have taken place. Additionally, we’ve had four consecutive months of zero illegal immigrants gaining access to this country and a 97% reduction in attempted border crossings. To put this in another context, through the first eight months of the Trump administration's policies, nearly as many illegal immigrants have left this country as had gained access to it through Biden’s open border policies during his last year in office. The net illegal immigration under the Trump administration has equaled 8,000 fewer illegal aliens in this country per day. It was instructive not only in painting the picture about the effectiveness of the Trump administration's immigration policy but also, and especially, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s ongoing “self-deportation” plan – that she regularly markets. On Friday we received an idea of what the deportation picture has been within Florida. According to U.S. Border Patrol, approximately 6,000 illegal aliens had been detained for deportation within Florida during the first five months of the Trump administration. This was announced along with the state of Florida being reimbursed $30 million by DHS for what had been facilitated by the state so far this year. That addresses the ramblings of illegal immigrant activists across the state who’ve been complaining about the state being on the hook for detention and deportation facilities, etc. Anyway, if self-deportations from Florida kept pace at the national rate, where four times as many illegal aliens have self-deported compared to those formally detained and deported, there were around 30,000 fewer illegal immigrants in Florida through the first five months of the year, or in other words about 6,000 fewer per month or...
Takeaway #2: 200 fewer per day
While the government data is looking in the rearview mirror what we’re able to see based on the pacing is that as of today, if the pace of the exit of illegal aliens from Florida is the same as it had been through the first five months, we’d have approximately 50,400 fewer illegal immigrants in Florida as of today. It’s a significant number, although the other dynamic that’s easy to see is the overall effectiveness of Florida’s toughest-in-the-county immigration policies preceding the Trump administration. Florida’s the third largest state in the nation and we have 6.7% of the country’s population. Yet in terms of the number of detained and deported illegal immigrants...we’ve only accounted for 2.5%. What this means is that Florida’s immigration policies in recent years have made the state 63% less likely to have attracted illegal immigrants compared to the average other state around the country. Clearly even during Biden’s era of open border policies, deterrence works, as plenty of research during those four years showed Florida to be the top destination for border crossers, aka, Magic “A” word people, who were abusing the asylum system.
Takeaway #3: Federal Behavior
This week will have a lot of federal policy in focus. First and foremost, will there be a partial government shutdown come Wednesday, or will Democrats – realizing that President Trump would use the opportunity to permanently shrink the federal government blink? Will there be more federal indictments of allegedly bad actors from yesteryear looming behind the James Comey indictment? Many folks think Letitia James, the allegedly corrupt New York prosecutor who attempted to ruin and bankrupt Donald Trump will be next due to her alleged mortgage fraud. On Polymarket – where you can bet on these things – 70% of people believe she’ll be indicted by the end of the year. But to the point of what I stated last week, very few think there will actually be accountability for James Comey as in a conviction resulting in jail time, as only 6% currently think Comey will end up in the clink. That’s the thing about being indicted in a jurisdiction that’s comprised of about 70% TDS-riddled Democrats. Nevertheless, the next steps with all of these things could become very interesting, including the potential for actual accountability...though I’m not holding my breath.