Trump’s Plan for Middle East Greatness & For A Great Government Shutdown – Top 3 Takeaways, September 30th, 2025
Takeaway #1: A Real Chance for Greatness
That’s what President Trump had to say in advance of a high stakes meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Specifically, President Trump believes there can be relative peace between Israel and a transitional governing body of the people of the Palestinian territories and built out of the framework a lasting peace in the middle east...something historically we’ve never seen. President Trump outlined a 21-point plan...this is what’s in it. 1. Gaza will be de-radicalized 2. Gaza will be redeveloped 3. Israel & Hamas will immediately end the war 4. All hostages kept by Hamas must be returned 5. Once hostages are obtained Israel will release over 1,000 Gazans held as prisoners of war. 6. Remaining members of Hamas will be granted amnesty. 7. Aid will surge into Gaza. 8. Aid will be distributed by the U.N. 9. Gaza will be governed by a transitional government of Palestinian technocrats under supervision by the U.S, Arab and Euro partners. 10. An economic plan aimed at stability for Gazans is to be adopted. 11. An economic zone with reduced tariffs is to be offered to the transitional government. 12. Gazan property owners will be allowed to retain their properties. No one will be forced to leave during redevelopment. 13. All remaining Hamas infrastructure and weaponry is to be destroyed. 14. A security guarantee is to be provided to the people of Israel that Gazans will pose no threat. 15. The U.S., Arab and European partners will provide a stabilization force that will develop and train a police force and will retain a presence as an internal security body. 16. Previous boundaries to October 7th, 2023, will apply. Israel will cede all occupied Palenstian territory currently under its command. 17. If Hamas rejects the terms, the plan will continue as outlined in “terror free” areas. 18. Israel will not carry out future strikes in Qatar. 19. Interfaith dialogue and education will be mandatory with the Gazan citizenry aimed at de-radicalizing the population. 20. If all previous steps are completed a path towards Palestinian statehood may be recognized. 21. The U.S. will act as a permanent arbiter and facilitator of constructive dialogue between Israel and Palestinians. So that’s the plan that was agreed to President Benjamin Netanyahu. It’s a real chance for greatness, which truly would be a great thing if it came to be, because peace in that region is something we’ve never seen sustained.
Takeaway #2: What a partial government shutdown would look like
As I’ve pointed out over the years when partial government shutdowns have loomed... The federal government doesn’t shutdown. It prioritizes. During a partial federal government shutdown there is discretion regarding what stays open and what doesn't. But there’s one area that isn’t open to interpretation. What are considered “essential” services. "Shutdowns" are largely a modern phenomenon due to increased partisanship - it's a byproduct of the budget process created in 1976. Since 1976, there have been 22 "partial government shutdowns", eleven have reached the stage where certain agencies and their employees are furloughed. The government doesn't work on pay-go, or a revenue in, revenue out approach - we're still accumulating debt and that's because... The Office of Management and Budget determines what remains open and what doesn't with the President of the United States being the final arbiter of what’s considered essential - with a few exceptions. The average impact during shutdowns has historically only been felt by 15 to 20% of the 430 federal agencies. But what’s different this time is President Trump’s desire to...
Takeaway #3: DOGE the federal government...
Independent of a budget battle standoff – with the desire to outright eliminate several government agencies. For that reason, last week President Trump provided a directive for each department head to provide a plan for the potential reduction in headcount within their agencies that might be applied permanently. We now know what that would that look like. Consider this... If we do enter a partial government shutdown tomorrow... In the Defense Department, all military personnel will be retained, but only 30% of the civilian population – which provides what might be considered valuable insight into how much bloat there is within the civilian wing of the DOD. In Homeland Security, 95% of all employees would be retained, clearly almost everyone in that agency is deemed to be a priority...but that is clearly not the case within the Department of Education. If we have a partial shutdown tomorrow – how many of the people in that department will remain? Only 12%. That’s right, a partial government shutdown would result in the furlough and potential permanent elimination of 88% of the Department of Education. A department President Trump wants to eliminate, and a department Democrats can help expedite the elimination of if they continue to play their hand the way they’re playing it in the senate by blocking the House’s previously passed budget plan. Democrats are playing with fire here. Trump has orchestrated this into what’s effectively a “heads I win, tails you lose” scenario. And independent of any other considerations...if Trump will hold the line and eliminate 88% of the Department of the Education permanently – bring on the shutdown. It’ll be interesting to see if Democrats really do play into the president’s hand. Stay tuned.