How Low Can Stocks & Crypto Go? November 17th, 2025
The partial government shutdown, Earnings and Inflation are in Focus
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes are faring in 2025 so far:
- DOW: +11% (flat last week)
- S&P 500: +15% (flat last week)
- Nasdaq: +19% (flat last week)
It was a wild ride for the major indexes in effectively ending the week where they started, but that’s essentially what happened. A significant early week relief rally on news of a deal to end the longest partial government shutdown in history gave way to significant selling of big tech/AI names as concerns of a potential bubble with related companies led to a short-lived selloff that abated by the end of the week.
Adding to the concerns for investors were indications from Federal Reserve governors that a previously expected interest rate cut in December may not happen after all. Perhaps most notable over the previous week is the risk-off digital currency trade. While stocks are largely where they were coming into the previous week – the same isn’t true for cryptos which are steeped in a significant correction. Digital currencies sold off and stayed down with most tokens at levels not seen since late April/early May.
This week will prove to be important for direction heading into year end, but also with delayed government economic data that’s expected to begin to roll in. It’s likely to be another volatile week.
As for cryptos...
Here’s a look at where they stand.
- Bitcoin: -7% last week, +1% YTD
- Ether: -8% last week, -6% YTD
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -11%, last week -1% YTD
I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 30.42
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.18
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 47% drop from here—flat with a week ago as stock prices and fundamentals were close to unchanged. The market is historically expensive as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 47% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.