Florida’s Map Math & Unprecedented Volatility – Top 3 Takeaways – May 1st, 2026
Takeaway #1: Upon further review
This week the Florida legislature delivered Governor DeSantis the win he’d been looking for on redistricting (while House Speaker Daniel Perez continued to thumb his nose at the governor’s other priorities this week – calling those dead-on arrival – so there’s still that). But in the nationwide redistricting situations that have transpired commonly the situation is reported as though “Texas’ map gives Republicans X more seats and California’s map gives Democrats Y more seats and Virginia’s map is the fairest map ever created because it takes a state that votes 45% of the time for Republicans and it pretends that they don’t exist (I took a bit of liberty with the Virginia map characterization – but not that much actually). And so right on cue the oversimplification of maps and elections continued with the passage of Florida’s map. And of course, the related talking point is that Florida’s Republicans now have four additional congressional seats. Which, btw, I do hope to be the case. But as a person who happens to be a pragmatist and a highly accurate analyst...the oversimplification of things comes across like nails on a chalk board to me. First and foremost, regardless of the election, unless a candidate is running unopposed, the election must be won and that is point number one. The second point of contention is the most predictive indication of a potential election win. What is it? Incumbency. In Congressional races 93% of incumbents who run for reelection win (btw, that number was a stunning 97% - in U.S. House races the 2024 election). That’s the next most important thing that needs to enter the equation conversationally. When a state undergoes redistricting, who exactly is an incumbent? By that what I mean is that every district is drawn at least a little bit if not a lot different. This means that even if incumbents run for their same district, the district isn’t entirely the same place. And this means that to a certain percentage of voters for every current House member – you're not their incumbent. Trivia time. Historically, which cycles have produced the lowest average reelection rates for members of the House of Representatives? I gave you a major hint with what I prefaced this question with. The answer is... the cycle following Census redistricting. Whereas the average reelection rate is 93% during all cycles, the average is actually 94% during non-redistricted cycles and 90% during redistricting cycles. What this means is that on average nationally, following redistricting, there are an average of greater than 17 members of the U.S. House that don’t win reelection bids immediately after having been redistricted. This hopefully helps to illustrate how flawed operating on generalities and political assumptions can be. All states, including Florida, who’ve undertaken this process have...
Takeaway #2: Introduced maximum volatility into the process
First because that’s what redistricting inherently does, and second – because mid census redistricting has never been done. Currently it’s commonly reported that Republicans will pick up five seats in Texas, four in Florida, two in Ohio, and one each in Missouri, North Carolina and Utah; while Democrats will gain five in California and four in Virginia. I’m not a betting person but based on what I just brought you, I’d be willing to bet anyone right now that at least one of those expected outcomes doesn’t come to pass (and I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned out to be two or more). But for most of us the question is will the surprises happen near me? So, let’s see. In digging into Florida’s biggest changes – where Democrats were targeted – here's what we see with the new map. Tampa Bay area Democrat Rep. Kathy Castor’s District 14 seat is significantly redrawn and flips from D+ 8 under the old map to R+10. Orlando/Central Florida area Democrat Rep. Darren Soto’s District 9 seat is substantially altered extending farther south to include areas like parts of Indian River County flipping it from D+4% to R+18%. In South Florida, this is where we see the biggest changes as there are not only two seats drawn more favorably for Republicans, but for example, Districts 22 and 23 no longer exist as they once did. Lois Frankel no longer lives in District 22 that she currently (theoretically) represents but rather District 23 which also shifted from about D+6% (when it was District 22) to D+14 as District 23. Continuing south Jared Moskowitz’s most likely district goes from D+5 to R+10 with Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s likely district going from about D+6 to R+9. So, then the other question that enters into the conversation...
Takeaway #3: Where were those GOP voters reallocated from?
The most impacted Republican districts currently are Florida’s 8th District with Rep. Mike Haridopolos, 12th District with Rep. Gus Bilirakis and Florida’s 16th with Rep. Mario Diaz Balart. All three of those seats have gone from what are considered to be “safe” GOP seats to what political prognosticators would now consider to be “likely” GOP seats. It’ll be interesting to see the political jockeying – especially in these South Florida seats over the next couple of weeks...and then it’s game on to the August primaries and on to November. But if you remember one thing from this analysis – it should be this. Redistricting introduces maximum midterm volatility and what we have this year is unprecedented midterm volatility. Surprises will happen this year. The question is simply whether they will be near here. No race should be taken for granted by the GOP in Florida. There are no fait accomplis.