Will Iran Be Scared Strait? This Week Is a Turning Point Either Way – Top 3 Takeaways – May 5th, 2026
Takeaway #1: Scared Strait?
By midmorning Monday, it was clear that something meaningful was finally happening in the Strait of Hormuz. Following President Trump’s announcement of “Project Freedom”, the US-led escort effort aimed at ushering cargo ships that have been trapped since the start of the Iran war out of the Strait of Hormuz, we were met with a series of false reports from Iran’s state media that were reported around the world. That included our country’s numerous fake newsers...as well. The early round of fake news reports suggested Iran had struck a U.S. military vessel with two rockets. That was immediately denied by the U.S. and quickly proven to be untrue. Nevertheless, it was the latest reminder about what you can expect to get from GSS News. When those reports came across during the show yesterday, I said they had to be fake because the odds of Iranian speed boats successfully striking U.S. Destroyers were nil and that any efforts to do so would probably be fun target practice for our troops. To further illustrate the point, I ran this scenario through Grok (what would happen if Iranian attack boats attempted to take on a U.S. Destroyer in the Strait) ...he’s what it came back with: The likely short-term outcome would be the rapid destruction or neutralization of most or all of the attacking Iranian speedboats, with minimal to no damage to the U.S. destroyer in a direct engagement. In other words, that’s how fake, your GSS News is and how ignorant people who report that nonsense must be. What actually happened? Two Iranian drones struck an unescorted UAE oil tanker. In other real news... Project Freedom launched with 15,000 U.S. military personnel, guided-missile destroyers and over 100 aircraft. With the U.S. assets used as part of the operation I then ran this scenario. What if every Iranian attack boat believed to exist (somewhere between 3,000 – 5,000) attacked the U.S. convey deployed as part of Project Freedom? What would the outcome be? How long would the conflict take to play out? The most likely outcome is this: U.S. aircraft (fighters, helicopters, drones) would dominate, using standoff munitions to destroy hundreds rapidly before they mass. Combined with destroyer guns, the bulk could be neutralized in several hours to 1–2 days. Oh, and the most likely outcome also includes zero loss of U.S. military assets. To be clear what that means is that if Iran threw everything they had left at us at the same time, the assets we’ve deployed to the Strait would most likely eliminate it all within hours but within no more than 1-2 days. This information is important for multiple reasons. One, when President Trump says that Iran doesn’t really have a military left – that's about right if a full-scale attack would most likely be over within hours. But what this also illustrates is why Iran continues its tactics of attempting to delay the U.S. and to keep the ceasefire in place. Iran’s only leverage is the Strait and keeping shippers and insurance companies scared enough to stay out of it. But...
Takeaway #2: Iran doesn’t possess the means to be super scary
Not with the U.S. in the middle of any potential mess. And on that note two U.S. merchant vessels were the first to be successfully escorted through the Strait without incident which showed that 1) The U.S. is capable of making this work and that 2) when Iran tried to combat the effort we had Iranian “attack boats go boom”. By midday Monday U.S. Central Command confirmed that six Iranian attack boats attempted to confront “Project Freedom” and it didn’t exactly go well for them. Quoting Commander Brad Cooper regarding the number of attack boats they confronted...” Today, we saw just six, and eliminated them quickly”. This prompted President Trump to say this to Trey Yingst of Fox News: We have more weapons and ammunition at a much higher grade than we had before. We have the best equipment. We have stuff all over the world. We have these bases all over the world. They’re all stocked up with equipment. We can use all of that stuff, and we will, if we need it. (Iran will be) blown off the face of the Earth if they interfere with Project Freedom. Ok, so what should be make of this? This week will likely serve...
Takeaway #3: As a turning point
The status quo with Iran and the Strait isn’t something any of us are interested in seeing. Would you rather see whatever will be with Iran play out quickly – including if that means militarily – wait to see how long it will take Iran to theoretically capitulate after their financial capabilities have disintegrated? Project Freedom appears to be clearly aimed at evacuating ships that have been trapped in the Persian Gulf for 66 days. If Iran comes out to attack the ceasefire ends and what’s likely to be the beginning of the final battle with Iran will commence. And if Iran doesn’t attack, clearing the ships out of the strait that are in harm’s way, similarly sets the stage for what could come next militarily. Either way it appears that this week is setting up to be a potential capitulation, or turning point as opposed to just another week with the status quo ceasefire in place. Oil prices rose on this news back above $105 per barrel yesterday in anticipation of the elevated risk of conflict. That's probably the wrong read by the market. Oil production in Venezuela has increased by 50% since the removal of Maduro – with greater production increases being worked on by the day. U.S. oil production has also reached record with production reaching 13.6 million barrels per day in April – about 150,000 barrels more compared with a year ago. What’s left of OPEC after the UAE’s recent exit announced another production increase that should kick in once oil is moving through the Strait again. President Trump is correct that oil prices will plummet once oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again because there will be even more oil making its way around the world then there was before. The question of course is when that will begin. Iran has said the Strait will never go back to operating the way it did before the war – which just as the GSS News commonly reports fake Iranian State news, it seems some oil traders believe some of what Iran is saying too. This week appears likely to the be the turning point in whatever the end result in Iran will be...and either way this likely means we’re near or at the peak in oil and gas prices right now.