2026 Midterm Election Update – June 24th, 2026
Bottom Line: Since the advent of the current two-party system (41 midterm elections), we've averaged the President's party losing 3 U.S. Senate seats and 28 seats in the House of Representatives in midterm election cycles. If that were to happen this cycle, Republicans would narrowly retain control the Senate, however Democrats would gain control of the House of Representatives – which they last held in 2022.
Republicans currently maintain a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning Democrats would need to flip four net seats to gain control, as Vice President JD Vance, as President of the Senate, would split 50-50 ties.
In the House of Representatives, Republicans currently hold a 218-212 majority (with four vacancies), meaning Democrats only need to flip four net seats to gain control of the chamber.
There are only three times that the incumbent President's party has gained seats (1934 during FDR's first term, 1998 during Bill Clinton's second term, and 2002 during George W. Bush's first term) thus only 3 out of 41 midterm elections have resulted in the President's party netting additional congressional seats. Here's another way of looking at it... History suggests there's a 93% chance Democrats will gain Congressional seats this cycle.
Will history repeat itself this year? There’s been one polling indicator which has been 100% accurate in midterm election cycles. The generic ballot. Since the advent of the polling age in the 1930’s, the party favored on Election Day on the generic ballot has fared best in every cycle. In the most recent cycle, the 2022 Midterm elections, Republicans were favored by 2.5% in the RealClear Politics average of polls and ended up winning 2.8% more of the vote nationally. So how about this cycle?
As of today, the generic ballot says:
- DEM +4.9% (vs. 7.7% May 26th)
A month ago, Democrats were the best positioned for the midterm election the party has been to date. The Democrat advantage followed three months of the Iranian war including the fallout of higher gas prices. However, while significantly favored currently, there’s clearly been a bit of a shift in the size of the advantage. This has come amid in the early indication of a peace deal coming together with Iran and oil and gas prices dropping to three-month lows.
The size of the advantage in late May was similar in size to the advantage Democrats last held in the 2006 midterms amid a wave election result in which the party gained control of body congressional bodies. The meaningful move back towards the middle in recent weeks on the generic ballot is critically important for Republicans if they’re to have any hope of retaining congressional control.
Nevertheless, the 5% advantage Democrats currently retain suggests the party remains well positioned to gain congressional seats in this cycle by performing nearly twice as well as Republicans did in the 2022 midterms, though not nearly as well as the 7.3% advantage from 2018’s midterms when Democrats routed Republicans in a wave election.
A wildcard Adding to the uncertainty this cycle are numerous states redrawing maps in advance of the midterm elections – including Florida. Redrawn maps will all factor into outcomes in a potentially unprecedented way.
Retirements also have historically proved to be significant. Congressional incumbents running for reelection have won over 90% of the time. It’s common for members of Congress who feel especially vulnerable to retire as opposed to potentially losing an election. Often the party with the most retirements performs worse in midterms. On that note to date here are the announced retirements in the House of Representatives:
- Democrats: 22
- Republicans: 36
And in the United States Senate:
- Democrats: 4
- Republicans: 7
I’ll track these dynamics from time-to-time as we head into this year’s midterm election cycle.