2026 Midterm Election Update – July 30th, 2026
Bottom Line: Since the advent of the current two-party system (41 midterm elections), we've averaged the President's party losing 3 U.S. Senate seats and 28 seats in the House of Representatives in midterm election cycles. If that were to happen this cycle, Republicans would narrowly retain control the Senate, however Democrats would gain control of the House of Representatives – which they last held in 2022.
Republicans currently maintain a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning Democrats would need to flip four net seats to gain control, as Vice President JD Vance, as President of the Senate, would split 50-50 ties.
In the House of Representatives, Republicans currently hold a 218-212 majority (with four vacancies), meaning Democrats only need to flip four net seats to gain control of the chamber.
There are only three times that the incumbent President's party has gained seats (1934 during FDR's first term, 1998 during Bill Clinton's second term, and 2002 during George W. Bush's first term) thus only 3 out of 41 midterm elections have resulted in the President's party netting additional congressional seats. Here's another way of looking at it... History suggests there's a 93% chance Democrats will gain Congressional seats this cycle.
Will history repeat itself this year? There’s been one polling indicator which has been 100% accurate in midterm election cycles. The generic ballot. Since the advent of the polling age in the 1930’s, the party favored on Election Day on the generic ballot has fared best in every cycle. In the most recent cycle, the 2022 Midterm elections, Republicans were favored by 2.5% in the RealClear Politics average of polls and ended up winning 2.8% more of the vote nationally. So how about this cycle?
As of today, the generic ballot says:
- DEM +5.3% (vs. 6.0% July 8th)
The most recent move is a slightly encouraging one for Republicans as we advance deeper into the election season with most states having completed their primaries and also as we begin to near the time when voters begin to pay attention to candidates and issues in advance of November’s Election Day. Despite the unsettled Iranian conflict and elevated energy prices most recently, Republicans have clawed back a bit of the Democrat advantage in recent weeks and are 2.5 - points better off than their lows of the cycle during the peak of the Iran war.
At the peak of the Iran war Democrats enjoyed a 7.7% generic ballot advantage. Their largest of the cycle and a figure exceeding 2018’s blue wave election cycle and on par with 2006’s blue wave. The recent improvement by Republicans against numerous historical and Iranian related headwinds, is in indication that the Democrat brand remains generally weak in the minds of many people. To be clear Democrats would win the cycle solidly if the election were today – however not likely with a wave election result nationally. The coming weeks will likely prove to be pivotal as voters continue to engage the cycle and vet candidates. Candidate quality is always important, however it figures to be even more significant in this cycle with both major political parties viewed negatively in the eyes of most voters.
A wildcard adding to the uncertainty this cycle are numerous states redrawing maps in advance of the midterm elections – including Florida. Redrawn maps will all factor into outcomes in a potentially unprecedented way.
Retirements also have historically proved to be significant. Congressional incumbents running for reelection have won over 90% of the time. It’s common for members of Congress who feel especially vulnerable to retire as opposed to potentially losing an election. Often the party with the most retirements performs worse in midterms. On that note to date here are the announced retirements in the House of Representatives:
- Democrats: 22
- Republicans: 36
And in the United States Senate:
- Democrats: 4
- Republicans: 6
I’ll track these dynamics from time-to-time as we head into this year’s midterm election cycle.