Would impeachment benefit President Trump? - Part 2
Bottom Line: If impeached in the House, which I think is at least as unlikely to occur as it is likely to pass, we would have a Senate trial. As for the outcome of the Senate vote, something along the lines over what was suggested, a unanimous vote against by Republicans joined by a few Democrats, is likely to be close to what the reality would be. You have two Democrats, Doug Jones in Alabama and Gary Peters in Michigan, who are up for re-election next year in states Donald Trump won in 2016. Incidentally, their approval ratings are already among the two lowest in the Senate according to Morning Consult’s monthly average. Jones is at 41% approval in a state Trump won by 28%. Peters has a 36% approval rating in a state Trump won by under 1%. They’re both potentially Democrats who’d be unlikely to vote to convict and remove President Trump.
Republicans have a 53 to 47 advantage in the Senate. 67 votes are needed to convict and remove the President. If all Democrats and Independents were to vote to convict, which as, just mentioned isn’t a given, they’d still need 20 Republicans to vote to convict and remove. So, yes, there would have to be so much more to this impeachment story than has even been imagined, let alone disseminated, before there’s even a conversation about the potential for the President to be convicted. With all of that as the backdrop it pulls in the third and potentially most instructive point of all. Unlike the House impeachment process, which is completely controlled and orchestrated by Democrats, meaning that we’ll only hear from witnesses Democrats want us to hear from, the Senate trial would be orchestrated by majority leader Mitch McConnell with Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts presiding. In that setting all of the deep-state actors responsible for the Steele Dosier, FISA abuse and general Trump-Russia collusion hoax – would be able to be called or held in contempt.
Here’s the thing and I think it’s underappreciated, because it’s not being covered with bated breath the way the Muller investigation was, John Durham’s investigation is going to lead to indictments. Many of these actors are going to be exposed and held to account. I too was nervous about the status of the investigation until the recent update of an impaneled grand jury and the change in status to a criminal investigation. It’s coming. Having others, like senators in an impeachment trial, could inhibit the ability for Durham to complete his investigative work. I don’t believe we need a Senate trial to expose these deep-state actors. Nor do I think they’d incriminate themselves in a Senate trial any way.
I get the logic behind the thought that impeachment would benefit President Trump, but I remain skeptical of it occurring and I don’t think it’s necessary to achieve the desired result.