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The Summer Surge Will Continue In Florida According To The Mayo Clinic
Bottom Line: Yeah, I don’t like to hear it either. But in medical theory according to the Mayo Clinic’s Florida COVID-19 tracker and projections, we’re in for a rough ride over the next couple of weeks. We ended last week averaging over 10,000 new daily COVID-19 cases in Florida, as many as the same week a year ago, ending the week with the highest number of new cases, 14,258, that we’d had in a day since January. While the state is only releasing official numbers weekly, the CDC’s accounting suggests we’re now pacing over 12,000 new cases daily in real-time. This is to say that yeah, the summer surge is still surging, and the Mayo Clinic’s tracker is offering up a sobering projection.
The Mayo Clinic’s tracker projects new cases up to two weeks out at a time based on medical data tracked across all 67 counties. Even the best-case scenario isn’t good news. The best-case scenario shows cases rising from 99 per 100,000 in population today to 146 per 100,000 in two weeks, or a 47% increase in new cases. The midpoint, or average expectation is for a rise to 230 per 100k or a rise of 232%. The worst-case really isn’t something we want to discuss as cases could rise a ridiculous 392% in two weeks. I’m a seller for sure on that projection and even as far as the average projection is concerned. But here’s the thing. Even the best-case scenario suggests this summer surge driven by the Delta variant is going to get meaningfully worse before it gets better.
88% of Floridians have managed to get this far into the pandemic without catching the virus yet. The next two-weeks are likely to leave us with levels approaching or exceeding peak spread in Florida at any time during the pandemic. It’s a reminder to be careful lest you be part of this story over the next couple of weeks.