Q&A – How Florida’s Redistricting Maps Are/Must be Drawn
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Today’s entry: Hello Brian. Hearing your discussion on drawing up districts & Fla is one of the fairest, the guest provided a lot of details. My question is- do voter roles & their accuracy play a part in creating the maps This one looks (I don't want to say Gerrymandered, but) ...
Bottom Line: Tis’ that time of the decade where redistricting is in full swing. With Florida’s state session entering its second week – it remains the only must do by the legislature this side of passing a budget. Today’s note comes on back of my Friday conversation with state Senator Manny Diaz Jr. who is heavily involved with the process. So, here’s the thing about redistricting maps. They’re complicated. And whether they’re our current maps or any of the ones proposed, there’s a really good chance you’ve looked at them and thought...what the...? But here’s the thing. Just because they often look like they don’t make sense doesn’t mean they don’t and must be gerrymandered. That’s because of what the law calls for.
While I think most Floridians would think geography would be the top consideration, independent of other factors, it’s not. And legally it can’t be. Under the Voting Rights Act, priority is given to the protection of racial minorities first, and geography second. What complicates it still further is another mandate which comes into play. The concepts of cracking and stacking. As part of the Tier 1 considerations under the Voting Rights Act, legislators can’t “crack” racial minorities by diluting their representation across multiple districts which might potentially mitigate their influence. At the same time, they can’t “stack” them, or over-populate districts with racial minorities – in what could be an effort to lump racial minorities unduly into districts with one another in an effort to mitigate their influence more broadly. If it sounds complicated, it is. That’s because each district must have approximately the same number of people, representing racial balance and then attempting to make geographical sense. Independent of actual gerrymandering efforts, the reason why maps/districts, will often include long slivers of people extending alongside other districts is a result of these factors. As for Florida’s proposed maps...
Princeton’s Gerrymandering Project, rated Florida’s draft maps a “B”, or good rating. That’s the highest rating issued in the country in this year’s cycle. That hasn’t stopped interest groups looking for trouble, relevance or both to attempt to create trouble recently. As the legislature will consider maps this week, don’t be surprised to hear the volume go up on all things redistricting. And as for maps, while most of the attention is paid to Congressional maps, be mindful new state Senate and House maps must be approved as well. And then there’s a new wildcard entering the mix...
Governor DeSantis produced his own proposed Congressional map over the weekend. Technically, DeSantis’ GeneralCouncil did but we can read between the lines. It’s meaningfully different than any of the previously proposed Congressional maps to date. And this takes us to the final wrinkle in this process. Notably, while the Legislature must pass maps for Congressional districts, the state Senate and state House – they have full say over state legislative maps. Once maps for state House and Senate are approved – the process is done. The process is different for the Congressional map as Governor DeSantis has the final vote and the ability to ratify or veto what the legislature passes.
As we’re aware Governor DeSantis is a strong leader with lots of sway in driving the agenda in the state session. Will that hold true when it comes to finalizing a Congressional map? If he does, expect the volume to go way up on the Congressional map. DeSantis’ crack at it produces 18 districts won by Donald Trump in 2020, compared to 16 for the currently considered incarnations. Given that it’s the most aggressive, it’d draw the most scrutiny under those Tier 1 considerations. As far as redistricting goes, it should be an interesting and busy week.