Q&A – Are Covid Deaths Being Over Reported?

Q&A – Are Covid Deaths Being Over Reported?

Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods. 

Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com

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Today’s entry: Don't Think It Would Hurt When Reporting COVID Deaths, You Ccould Mention That The COVID Deaths Reported Are Misleading At Best, I Just Think When You Talk About COVID Deaths This Should Be Mentioned, Remember What You Always Say About Facts.

Bottom Line: Ahh yes, there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. You are right about my saying and you’ve introduced a topic I’ve not addressed in over a year. Covid death reporting. During the first year of the pandemic, I periodically weighed Covid death reporting against a metric that acts as a way to empirically determine what’s real regarding deaths from all causes. The CDC’s Excess Deaths metric. In case you’ve not heard me speak to it previously, and/or aren’t familiar with it... The metric averages five years of deaths calculated weekly and adjusted by population changes. This is helpful because it accounts for all variables. Whether everyone had been tested for the virus or if no one had. It also doesn’t matter how deaths were categorized. Simply, how many people died and how many normally would have? Prior to the impact of the pandemic the US hadn’t experienced even a week of excess deaths since February of 2018 during the impact of that unusually bad flu season. I haven’t done any sort of analysis on this data since last April, so going in I’m not sure where the data will lead me on this one to the point of your question. Is the reported death data misleading? Maybe but based on previous analysis perhaps not in the way you might think. 

The last analysis I completed was right at a year ago when the result I reached was that Covid deaths had actually been under-reported by 19%. That’s the reason I’ve not felt the need to offer a disclaimer regarding Covid death reporting as I have with Covid hospitalizations for example. Is that still the case? Here are a couple of initial takeaways:

• The most recent week the US didn’t have “excess deaths” was the week ended March 21st, 2020
• The peak number of excess deaths during the pandemic, and in the history of this metric, occurred during the first three weeks of January last year when an average of 44% more Americans were dying compared to usual

This data is consistent with the trends in Covid death reporting we’ve seen and it’s an indication that up to now, even during the lulls in between waves, we’ve still had above typical deaths occurring. Since the onset of the pandemic the range of excess deaths has been as low as 2% more than usual, to 45% more deaths than usual. Now to dig in deeper to compare Covid reported/attributed deaths to the actuals. 

• Total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US as of January 8th: 861,418
• Excess deaths since the pandemic began: 968,036 as of the week ended January 8th

So, here’s the thing. It’s been a year since I’ve provided this analysis but the outcome isn’t any different. Actual Covid deaths are significantly higher than reported Covid-attributed deaths. The data illustrates through January 8th there are 106,618 deaths in excess of official reporting. That means actual Covid deaths have been 12% higher than what’s been reported. Here’s a look at Florida specifically.

• Total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in Florida as of January 8th: 63,202
• Excess deaths since the pandemic began: 71,169 as of the week ended January 8th

Similar to the country overall, Florida’s Covid reported deaths well below the actuals. Through the 8th there were 7,967 more excess deaths than Covid attributed deaths in our state. That’s 12.6%, or right about in line with the national average for under-reporting. So yes, there remain two sides to stories and one side to facts, the fact of the matter remains that actual deaths due to Covid pace 12% higher in Florida and the country as a whole. Everything about this pandemic has long been politicized as you’re well aware. Something I’d caution against is latching onto narratives. I’m optimistic about omicron potentially being the final wave of this pandemic, and I’m anything but a six-mask hermit (to borrow a phrase from Governor DeSantis). That said, I’ve seen just as many false narratives on the right as I have the left during this pandemic. The virus is and has been a virus. It’s not political. And to your point, the facts are the facts. As always, I establish them and go where they take me, which isn’t always where I’d prefer for them to go either.