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Q&A – Florida Redistricting Implications from Governor DeSantis’ Supreme Court Loss
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Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
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Today’s Entry: Brian, is the court denying DeSantis a conservative (map)? At what point can it be said that courts are overstepping their boundaries? The constitution clearly designates the legislatures as controlling the elections. Could the Florida court just ban new district lines until the end of time in the face of the voters?
Bottom Line: You’re right that the Legislature is tasked with drawing the maps, however the law also provides limitations on how those maps are drawn. Given that legislatures must operate within the confines of the law, any challenges to that law are naturally decided by the courts. So, no there’s no overreach here by the courts and what they actually offered an opinion on last week was specifically at the direction of Governor DeSantis. I’ll explain how all of this comes together, and what the implications are for Congressional redistricting in Florida after the Florida Supreme Court Opinion on Governor DeSantis’ proposed Congressional map.
As mentioned, Florida’s Legislature is the body which must approve a new Congressional map. What’s different, is that unlike the state Senate and state House maps which are in force upon the ratification by the state Legislature, the governor must sign the new Congressional map into law. This is why Governor DeSantis offered his own proposed map for congressional districts but didn’t for state legislative districts. The parameters of the new map must adhere to the standards outlined in the Voting Rights Act. Under the Act, priority is given to the protection of racial minorities first, and geography second. What complicates it still further is another mandate which comes into play. The concepts of cracking and stacking which I discussed about a month ago.
As part of the Tier 1 considerations under the Voting Rights Act, legislators can’t “crack” racial minorities by diluting their representation across multiple districts which might potentially mitigate their influence. At the same time, they can’t “stack” them, or over-populate districts with racial minorities in what could be an effort to lump racial minorities unduly into districts with one another in an effort to mitigate their influence more broadly. If it sounds complicated, it is. That’s because each district must have approximately the same number of people, representing racial balance and then attempting to make geographical sense. Independent of actual gerrymandering efforts, the reason why maps/districts, will often include long slivers of people extending alongside other districts is a result of these factors.
This is true of all states redistricting this year and already two states, North Carolina and Ohio, have had the maps adopted by their legislatures struck down in the courts under the Voting Rights Act. In the case of Ohio, twice. Alabama’s map has made it as far as the United States Supreme Court. This takes back to why Governor DeSantis preemptively petitioned the state’s Supreme Court to offer official guidance as to whether his map, which went far further than any of the legislative maps in either chamber, went in drawing new boundaries. The unanimous opinion that it may go too far and may violate the Voting Rights Act as drawn, is helpful for Governor DeSantis and the legislature generally. Regardless of how Florida’s Supreme Court may rule on a map, there’s the potential that map challenges could end up before the United States Supreme Court as Alabama’s already has.
Florida’s Supreme Court is currently comprised of three appointments by Charlie Crist (back in the GOP days), one by Rick Scott and three by Governor DeSantis. The unanimous opinion that DeSantis’ map over-reached speaks volumes. If the whole of Florida’s Supreme Court says there’s an issue. What would you expect the outcome to be before the United States Supreme Court? And timing matters here. These maps must be approved before the end of the Legislative Session March 11th, so they can be implemented in time for this year’s midterm elections. Should the state move forward with a map that would fail before the Supreme Court, there are two potential issues, the need for a rapid special session to approve new maps, or based upon timing, a federal court could implement an alternate map – as was the case when the League of Women Voters map was adopted a decade ago after the courts invalidated the Legislature’s map. It’s safe to say that a map proposed by the League – who has already said they’re ready to legally challenge pretty much whatever is approved – would not be as favorable for Republicans as a “legal” map drawn by the Legislature and approved of by Governor DeSantis.
From a conservative perspective it might not seem like Florida’s Supreme Court did the Governor or GOP-led Legislature any favors with their opinion. In reality – they did. So, it’s back to the drawing board in the final weeks of the state session. And as state Senator Manny Diaz Jr., told me Friday, its complicated. Hope that helps. More to come...