Ted Deutch & Democrat Defections from Congress 

Ted Deutch & Democrat Defections from Congress 

Bottom Line: November’s eight months away. That can be a near eternity in political cycles where just about anything can happen that might impact the dynamic at the voting booth in November. We need think back no further than two years ago. Two years ago entering March President Trump was riding high with his best approval ratings of his presidency. Record high wages, record low unemployment, the US economy kicking on all cylinders under the new USMCA. It was a time of true peace and prosperity in this country. Just two weeks later that obviously all changed with a virus. This is to say that no doubt a lot will happen between now and November, however as it pertains to elections and specifically Democrat politics, you don’t get the feeling that whatever it is will be good for them. The actions of retiring Congressional Democrats, most recently Ted Deutch, would certainly seem to suggest that.  

Ted Deutch’s retirement is the 31st announced by Democrats already this cycle. That’s the 2nd highest total from one political party in one cycle in American history. The average number of Democrats to retire in a cycle has been 14. The all-time record is 35 in 1992. Speaking of history, with so many Democrats calling it a political career, are we set to witness a historical number of seats flipping this cycle? The red wave of 2010 resulted in a record 69 Congressional seats flipping from Democrats to Republicans. If history is to be challenged this cycle – that one is the comp. As we’re eight months away from November’s elections the best temperature check is the mood of the country as reflected on the questions as to our view of the direction of the country and generic ballot. What does the survey say...  

On March 1st of 2010:  

• Direction of the Country: 35% - right track 
• Generic Ballot: GOP +1% 

Today:  

• Direction of the Country: 30% - right track 
• Generic Ballot: GOP +4% 

The mood of the country is five points more pessimistic than twelve years ago and the political landscape three points more favorable for Republicans. So, yes – there's a long way to go. Yes, the current conditions are extremely conducive for history in the making this fall.