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Hurricane Forecasting Season is Here, How Accurate is AccuWeather’s Hurricane Forecast?
Bottom Line: As usual the first forecast for the upcoming hurricane season is out and it’s from AccuWeather. The AccuWeather forecast made news when it dropped for predicting another above average hurricane season. While that’s true, how does it compare to their previous forecasting? How accurate has their previous forecasting been? As I’ve said before, I’d like to see the meteorology industry nail the same day forecast before convincing me to take a hurricane forecast seriously months in advance. But then again, there is a science to it that’s different than the same day forecast. First here’s AccuWeather’s report card from last year.
Last year their forecast predicted:
- 16-20 named storms (actual 21)
- 7-10 hurricanes (actual 7)
- 3-5 major hurricanes (actual 4)
- 2-4 US landfalls (actual 8)
Ok, so a mixed bag. They slightly underpredicted the total number of named storms, while significantly underestimating how many would have direct US impact. On the other hand, the total number of hurricanes came right in line with the low end of their forecast, and they were spot on for the number of majors. In other words, AccuWeather’s 2021 hurricane forecast was generally accurate. That lends additional credibility to what they’re forecasting this year. And what exactly does that look like?
So, what’s their 2022 outlook calling for?
- 16-20 named storms
- 6-8 hurricanes
- 3-5 major hurricanes
- 4-6 US landfalls
This year’s forecasting looks an awful lot like last year’s. There are only two changes. They’re predicting about one less hurricane but two additional named storms that will directly impact the US – though even that number is still below what actually happened last year. So, on balance, this year’s forecast is slightly more favorable than last year’s forecast and is actually pretty close to an average year – which would be nice seeing as we’ve had an above average cycle since 2015. The only category in which AccuWeather is predicting above average activity is with named storms themselves. All other categories are in-line with historic averages. In South Florida we’ve been fortunate to not experience the direct impact of hurricane force winds since Irma in 2017. Let’s hope to keep it that way.