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Q&A – Is South Florida Becoming Less Blue?
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Today’s Entry: Brian, I know Reps have overtaken Dems in voter registration in Florida since the 2020 cycle. What I’d like to know is what’s changed in the Dems strongholds here in SFL. I haven’t heard much about map changes in SFL which might be an oversight.
Bottom Line: So yep, a lot has been made about Florida’s voter registration changes since the 2020 cycle - with Republicans outnumbering Democrats for the first time in Florida’s history. Notably, the 2020 cycle was a historically good one for Florida’s Republicans, despite Democrats still having held a registration advantage at the time. These changes, along with what figures to be an extremely favorable cycle for Republicans generally, has led to widespread optimism on the right about what could happen this fall in Florida. Before digging into data, what I can tell you is that the move towards the right by way of voter registration hasn’t been isolated to any region of the state. Over the past year Republicans have gained on Democrats in 66 of Florida’s 67 counties including all of South Florida. But to your point, how significant has it been in South Florida, which has long been the Dem’s stronghold in this state?
Here’s the voter registration scorecard from Election Day 2020...
Broward:
- D+: 361,220 voters
Miami-Dade:
- D+: 201,016 voters
Palm Beach:
- D+: 134,335 voters
Here’s the current voter registration information...
- D+: 357,163 voters
- D+: 158,882 voters
- D+: 117,173 voters
Republicans have gained ground against Democrats in all three counties, with the biggest gains being made within Florida’s largest county, Miami-Dade. The change by county from Election Day 2020 to today is a net Republican gain of 4,057 voters in Broward, 17,162 voters in Palm Beach County and 42,134 voters in Miami-Dade. All of South Florida is less blue than it was a year and a half ago and your point about the drawing of a new Congressional map in the upcoming special session is a good one. I’ll come back around to that point in a moment.
The biggest 2020 changes in the electorate and surprises on Election Day came out of Dade, so what the registration changes reflect is seemingly a continuation of what happened at the polls during the previous election cycle. The implications are many if this trend continues. For the past twenty years I’ve said the key to winning statewide elections for Republicans in Florida is to “lose well” in South Florida. Democrats still hold meaningful advantages over Republicans in total registration in all three counties however, aside from Broward which remains bright blue, the margins are now small enough for NPA’s to determine election outcomes if they were to break hard towards Republicans. Biden’s current approval rating in Florida with Independents, is 27%. If the current trends in voter registration continue heading into November, and if President Biden’s approval rating remains anywhere close to where it is right now, there’s not only the possibility for Florida’s Republicans to “lose well in South Florida”. There’s the potential for outright wins.
Going back to last October I’ve spoken of generational opportunities for Republicans who lead with effective policy and messaging to win over a new generation of voters. That not only remains true but appears to be even more of a possibility than last fall. In Florida, we’ve been led by a Governor who’s led with good policy and happens to be on the ballot this fall. All of South Florida is less blue than it’s been but there’s the potential for history to be made here this fall. And that takes us back to the Congressional map. Previous versions of proposed maps have largely left South Florida unchanged. From a point of political opportunism, that may be a mistake because political times are a’ changing down here. It’ll be interesting to see what’s drafted in the session next week.