Political Miscalculations - Top 3 Takeaways – May 5th, 2022 

Political Miscalculations - Top 3 Takeaways – May 5th, 2022 

1. Perhaps the conventional political abortion wisdom is unwise? We’re six months away from a critical midterm Election Day. Regardless of one’s political persuasion there’s been no doubt momentum has specifically been on one side. Not only is the president’s party most commonly a loser in midterm election cycles, but Biden’s record low approval ratings, at this stage of his presidency, are driven by a seemingly endless cycle of self-created crises. As depicted in my weekly Midterm Election update, entering this week Republicans were even better positioned against Democrats at this stage of the cycle, than they were in the record setting 2010 red wave, when Republicans flipped 69 Congressional seats from Democrats. But then Monday night the leak heard ‘round the world happened. Conventional political wisdom commonly expressed by people on both sides, suggested this was exactly the single-issue rallying cry that would suddenly reshape Congressional races. While I have little doubt that may be the case in contested Democrat primaries, where Democrats will now shift from trying to prove their gender is more fluid than the other candidates (or something like that), to being the candidate most in favor of whacking as many babies in the womb as possible... I don’t think that conversation will resonate generally the way many perceive that it will. And of course, my thoughts are backed by facts.  
2. Most Americans are now willing to follow the abortion science. As I mentioned in my takeaways just yesterday (citing polling from February during Florida’s abortion debate)... Polling shows that only 47% of Americans consider themselves prolife, yet 71% oppose late term abortion. Why? Because somewhere along the way morality and physical reality enters the equation. Current information shows that for practical purposes, anything after 15 weeks should be considered “late-stage”. And the most recent polling, just in from Fox News, shows 54% of Americans currently favor a ban on abortion after 15 weeks – with only 41% who don’t support a 15-week abortion ban. That’s precisely what the Mississippi law before the Supreme Court calls for and it’s exactly in line with Florida’s recently enacted law. In fact, in the same polling, by a margin of 50%-46% Americans now support an abortion ban after six weeks. None of that suggests it’s the winning issue for Democrats that political pontificators seem to think it’s going to be. And here’s the thing. The reason this country has been increasingly trending in a direction that’s more inclined to error on the side of life over abortion? Information. The more informed people are, the less likely they are to favor abortion. You’ll hear polls say most Americans think Roe V Wade should be upheld, but the finer points within the polling reveal many Americans have no clue what that ruling really represents or what reversing it would result in. It’s evident from the sampling that many Americans don’t realize Roe enabled abortions up to 24 weeks, or that reversing it would kick the issue back to the states. It’s evident that the more this conversation is had, and the more abortion reality is understood, support for a SCOTUS decision striking it down will rise. Just as we’ve seen with a society that has, in general, become far more socially liberal since the Roe decision in 1973, but that has been slowly trending more conservative on the issue of abortion, knowledge is power and despite leftist conventional wisdom that’s anything but wise...most Americans just don’t think whacking babies is the best idea running. 
3. There’s a good chance the political calculous of this abortion debate being good for Democrats is wrong. And if Democrats think most Americans will say screw it to 41-year high inflation and an impending recession, along with a border crisis an energy crisis, geopolitical crises all in the name of abortions on demand? They’re not only on the wrong side of science. They’re living in an altered state of reality. All throughout the abortion debate in Florida in February, we heard most Floridians were against it. Ditto the Parental Rights in Education Legislation and the battle with Disney. And what do the polls today say? The potential for an impending DeSantis landslide this fall. The truth sets voters free and the more these conversations are had, just as was the case with legislation like the Parental Rights in Education, the more of it that will be known. And regarding the most important issue of all. The right to life.