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The Census Undercount’s Impact on Florida
Bottom Line: In what I referred to as the Census shaft, post-Census auditing, known as the post-enumeration survey, has revealed Florida was given the fourth shortest straw in the country. With the Census determining the share of federal funds distributed nationally, it matters. With the number of seats in the House of Representatives determined by the Census, it matters. And with the number of Electoral College votes in presidential elections determined by the Census, it matters. But what specifically did Florida lose in the undercount? Let’s dive in.
Florida’s estimated undercount was 3.5%, or what amounts to about 700,000 people. If that sounds like a lot it is, especially in the context of Congress. In the 2020 Census Florida needed only 171,000 additional residents to have gained a second seat in Congress and an additional Electoral College vote. So not only was Florida’s true population sufficient to have gained an extra seat in Congress and an extra Electoral College vote, we exceeded what was needed by 529,000 people – or nearly the population of Wyoming. And then there’s the financial implications.
Florida ranks 39th in financial dependency on the federal government. This means we’re less dependent on the federal government than most states. That said, we’re the third largest state and as a result are one of the top states for federal funds. There’s no way to know what federal spending will be over the next decade to know at this point how much it will cost, however we’re into the tens of billions at a minimum. The bottom line is that we’ll be paying the price in Florida for the next decade for what wasn’t taken into account two years ago. And in the event, there’s a near evenly split House of Representatives, or a Presidential Election determined by an Electoral College vote or two... The implications will prove even greater.