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Catastrophe Economic Failures & Constitutional Carry - Top 3 Takeaways – June 13th, 2022
- Catastrophe failures. Unfortunately, this country screwed the pooch on the 2020 elections so badly there are many of them. And so, we’re literally left paying the price. Friday’s bombshell inflation report depicting fresh 41-year high inflation was predictable, which yet again evidences how absurd it is that President Biden, nor his economic team, nor the Federal Reserve, nor Wall Street economists predicted it. I’ll walk you back to what I said on the subject a month ago – from May 13th's top three takeaways: But wait. It's worse, way worse, than what we’re already paying for. Yes, the Consumer Price Index came in at 8.3%. Yes, we’re at 41-year high inflation. Yes, the average household is 2.8% worse off, when adjusting for income growth, then a year ago. But it could be, and very well may be, much worse going forward. Yesterday’s PPI, or Producer Price Index, came in at a flaming hot 11%. What’s more is that the CORE rate, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.6% during the month. Meaning non-potentially transitory inflation at the wholesale level is surging. Yikes. That’s a problem. And when you factor in the fact that gas prices in real-time are at record highs... Yeah, there’s no doubt that inflation – as brutal as it's been – is only worse in real-time. Now as I’ve stated many times – unlike our unfortunate president and unlike most economists – I've not made a career of out being wrong. I fashion it as my little place in the world to cut through the BS to get to the facts. But it is somewhat confounding that even after more than a year of the president and his seemingly economically illiterate peeps getting it wrong – they'd reevaluate. Yes, what I just shared with you, that I originally shared with you a month ago, is based on somewhat complicated macro-economic analysis which I routinely boil down (to hopefully make sound simple). No, it should not be beyond anyone who makes a living studying economics. That it evidently still is, is itself a catastrophic failure. Having the wrong economic peeps in the wrong places advising and crafting policy is a problem. And how big is the problem?
- The biggest of our lives. At least generally. The median age of an American is 38.5 years. With fresh a 41-year high inflation on our hands this is the worst it's been in the lives of most of us. That’s likely why consumer confidence is the worst measured in our lifetimes (regardless of age). The CPI report wasn’t the only data bomb to drop on Friday. So was the monthly Consumer Sentiment survey. And what did the survey say... Consumer sentiment dropped 14% last month alone and is now down 44% over the past year to reach a record low in the survey. That’s lower than the peak of the pandemic lockdowns. That’s lower than the lows of the housing crisis and Great Recession. And here’s the next dose of reality for the economic muppets running the show. It’s not possible to have 41-year high inflation and record low consumer confidence and avoid a recession. Consumer spending is 70% of the US economy. Going back to January I first stated the rate of inflation relative to incomes was no longer sustainable and began warning of recession. It’s only far worse today. With 8.6% year over year inflation and 5.2% income growth over the past year – the average household is now 3.4% worse off than a year ago – also the worst in 41 years and the biggest discrepancy between the two in most of our lives. Nothing about that says economic growth. And here’s the next dose of reality. Is life cheaper today than it was a month ago today? Of course not, right? So, what does that tell you about inflation in real-time?
- Constitutional Carry equals less crime. While news media was fixated Saturday on protestors protesting for largely what we passed in Florida over four years ago, with nary a mention of that reality by even local news media, comes another reality. Constitutional Carry has been shown to equal less crime. Last week Florida’s incoming Speaker of the House Paul Renner, pledged to pass “Constitutional Carry”, or permitless carrying of firearms, through the state house in next year’s legislative session. Governor DeSantis recently pledged to sign Constitutional Carry into law. In today’s Q&A I address the impact in states where this policy has been enacted in recent years. Here’s the headline. Constitutional Carry equals less crime. As always there remain two sides to stories and one side to facts. Regardless of narratives – I'll continue to deliver the facts.