Florida Rent Rates, Privacy Laws & Biden Getting Bezoed- Top 3 Takeaways – July 5th, 2022
- Much more to the story. As I cover in today's Q&A there’s much more to the story of Leon County Circuit Court Judge John Cooper’s injunction against Florida’s new law limiting abortions to 15-weeks in most instances, than meets the eye. As has been the case generally since the Supreme's ruling overturning Roe and kicking the abortion issue to the states – the focus has been on abortion restrictions. That said – in six states abortion access has already expanded since the ruling. States which currently have no restrictions on when abortions may be performed include: Alaska, Colorado, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Vermont & Washington D.C. Without the Supreme Court’s 24-week limit – abortions still in force, the limitless trigger laws in these locals are kicking in and expanding abortion up to the moment of birth. But guess what...Florida could be next. The rest of the story regarding Judge John Cooper’s ruling on Florida’s law pertaining to the implications of where abortion goes from here in Florida should his decision hold – could lead to Florida being next. Cooper’s ruling included this… Florida passed into its Constitution an explicit right of privacy that is not contained in the U.S. Constitution. The Florida Supreme Court has determined, in its words, 'Florida's privacy provision is clearly implicated in a woman's decision of whether or not to continue her pregnancy. If the state, under Florida’s Constitution, doesn’t have a right to interfere with medical privacy period- what’s to stop a woman who wants a 3rd trimester abortion from getting one if a doctor is willing to perform it? This angle hasn’t gained any attention or traction that I’ve seen yet. Now, the best bet, given his history and the current Florida Supreme Court’s history is that his ruling will eventually be overturned, but if his ruling were to hold – there's much more to Florida’s abortion story than the new law being struck down.
- Rent prices have peaked in South Florida. And actually, that’s the case for the housing market overall. On May 9th in my story – Has South Florida’s Real-Estate Market Peaked? I said this: Without hesitation I’m comfortable saying that there’s zero chance of double-digit appreciation for the average home continuing over the next year. And I’ll take another step as well. The peak of the housing boom of the early 2000’s was May 2006 in South Florida. In addition to macroeconomic conditions there’s the cyclical nature of real-estate to consider as well. The housing boom of the past couple of years as we’ve known it begins to end this month in my estimation. In other words, we’re experiencing the end of the boom right now. In the near term, aside from what I’d expect to be growing inventory and days on market – I think we’ll begin to see a tale of two markets. A resilient luxury market driven by cash coming out of stocks and a wavering market for average homes which largely rely on buyers who’re obtaining mortgages. Two months later, from the stock market to the housing market, that call is proving to have been correct. A just released report of rent rates shows the sky-high increases are over in South Florida... Between May & June the average rent rate decreased 5.9% in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro. In fact, all major metros in Florida were lower, but the decreases in South Florida were largest – and represented the fifth biggest decrease month-over-month nationally. So, while prices are still much higher than a year ago, relief is on the way. And for those wearily looking at the current real-estate market wondering whether to rent or to buy, here’s a little trick. Historically when it’s cheaper to buy a home with a traditional 30-year mortgage with 20% down and to make a mortgage payment than it is to rent it – that property’s value will rise. When it's more expensive to make that mortgage payment than it is to rent it – the inverse is often true. Rent prices have peaked in South Florida for this cycle and there’s a likely chance that’s true for most home prices too.
- It’s either straight ahead misdirection or a deep misunderstanding of basic market dynamics. Jeff Bezos reports, you decide. You knew Biden’s administration had fully bombed when Bezos began calling him out. Jeff Bezos is a lot of things – most of them liberal politically, but he’s still a capitalist and he’s certainly economically literate. Two things President Biden’s proving not to be. The president’s recent tweet stating: My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a time of war and global peril. Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you’re paying for the product. And do it now. Was called out by a lot of people who have anything resembling an economic clue. But Bezos in particular perhaps summed up the situation best when he said: Ouch. Inflation is far too important a problem for the White House to keep making statements like this. It’s either straight ahead misdirection or a deep misunderstanding of basic market dynamics. Right. And this isn’t complicated. Oil companies don’t “set” the price for oil. It’s a commodity traded around the world. And as I’ve illustrated, oil is well over half of what accounts for the price at the pump. And not only is oil still $110 because President Biden created the problem by limiting US energy production through executive actions – it takes more energy to eventually get it to gas stations because he’s also limited its distribution through pipelines. I think Bezos is right except that I think it's both misdirection and a misunderstanding of economic basics. But hey – still no-Trump tweets... This is so much better right Bezos & Co?