A Highly Consequential Week Ahead & Florida’s Red Wave - Top 3 Takeaways

A Highly Consequential Week Ahead & Florida’s Red Wave - Top 3 Takeaways – July 25th, 2022 

1. A huge week ahead. No, I’m not saying that because lobster mini season hits this week in Florida (Wednesday and Thursday to be exact) – though that’s no doubt exciting for some. No, this has nothing to do with the WHO and monkeypox. No, I’m not saying that because Israel just sunk an offshore Palestinian vessel, they said was being used by Hamas to carry out terror operations – though that’s a significant geopolitical development (though one that’s almost certainly to be ignored by news media – much like Russia is methodically conquering Ukraine). This is also completely unrelated to players reporting to NFL training camps this week, though optimism is high for the Dolphins this year. But what makes this week so huge is what we’ll learn during it and what will transpire because of it. Are we or are we not in a recession? That is the first question. After the economy shrank in the first quarter, a second consecutive quarter of the economy going backwards would be confirmation that in fact the US economy would have spent the first half of this year in... 
2. The first textbook recession since the Great Recession of over a decade ago. And the odds are overwhelmingly likely that’s been the case. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Tracker – the most historically accurate prognostication tool, suggests the economy shrunk another 1.6% in the 2nd quarter after having shrunk by 1.6% in the first quarter. And while the Biden administration is already attempting to spin the narrative that somehow the economy could shrink for six consecutive months and not be in a recession, as always there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. We’ll soon learn what those facts are, and they matter because the data will provide insight as to whether perhaps the worst is behind us, based on the economic trend being our friend with perhaps peak inflation having hit in June, or if the worst is in front of us based on slowing growth – even if inflation peaked in June. This is all huge for the Federal Reserve as they are plotting their next rate increase. Speaking of inflation, with oil prices sitting below a $100 per barrel more often than not of late, it’s also the week gas prices could break below $4 per gallon for the first time since mid-April. It’s also another key week of earnings on Wall Street and a key week to watch what if anything might happen from policy in Congress prior to the August recess. If something’s going to move prior to November’s election – historically this is the week it’d need to come together. And that’s all without anything new being added to the mix. So yes, the week ahead is huge. Speaking of which... 
3. The red wave is already here in Florida. While the tropics remain quiet as we’re set to wrap up the 2nd month of hurricane season on a joyfully quiet note leaving our usual pattern of moderate surf in place...there’s nothing moderate about what’s happening in Florida’s political scene. We’re four weeks away from Florida’s Primary Day and over three months away from our midterm Election Day, but there’s no doubt the red wave is already here in Florida. By now it's well known that Florida’s Republican Party is set to enter this year’s election cycle with a voter registration advantage for the first time in our state’s history. It’s also well-known momentum, independent of geopolitics, has long been on the Florida GOP’s side. But what’s happening in real-time isn’t just a continuation of trends. It’s a rapid acceleration of all of them. Record Democrat defections turning into record Republican gains. The Florida Division of Elections just completed its monthly update of voter rolls, and the results for Democrats look as bleak as Charlie Crist’s political future. Charlie recently told Democrat voters he was once a “hypothetical Republican”, well there’s nothing hypothetical about Florida’s newly registered Republicans – and Floridians continue to flee from Democrats in this state. There were a net 32,045 additional voters added to Florida’s rolls last month in advance of the August primaries. Of them, there are now 4,816 fewer registered Democrats in this state. It’s rather remarkable that most recently over a thousand net new voters are registering to vote per day in our state as Democrats lose an average of 161 voters per day. Remarkably, Florida’s Democrats have now lost over 125,000 voters this year. Whatever Crist hypothetically is today, it’s clear the red wave is already here in Florida and a record number of registered Republicans are waiting to ride it.