Florida’s August Primaries & Election Integrity – Top 3 Takeaways

A Numbers Game in Florida’s August Primaries & Election Integrity – Top 3 Takeaways – August 22nd, 2022 

1. Democrats dominated early. With early voting behind us and only tomorrow’s Primary Day ahead of us, a clear trend is in. Democrats dominated early. Not as in early voting – republicans actually led democrats with early in-person voting, but as in the total number of votes cast prior to Election Day. As of Sunday morning’s update, which didn’t reflect Sunday’s early voting totals, 69,849 more democrats had voted than republicans. Why is that notable, especially since republicans have typically had strong Election Day turnout? Because it’s the reverse of what took place four years ago and republicans now must have strong Election Day turnout to be competitive with democrats this primary cycle. To put this in perspective, in the August primaries four years ago – republicans led in turnout prior to Election Day by 36,557 voters. This means democrats have flipped the script by greater than 106,000 voters over where we were at the same time the last time. That’d be an impressive turnaround regardless of other considerations, but becomes that much more impressive when considered against the backdrop of just how much has changed with registered voters in Florida. Florida’s democrats led republicans in voter registration by over 257,000 voters back then. Florida’s republicans lead democrats by over 230,000 voters today. So, while Florida’s republicans have dominated Florida’s democrats in voter registration changes over the past four years, Florida’s democrats have dominated preelection day voting for Tuesday’s primaries. As I mentioned last week, the partisan primaries are one thing, but partisan turnout will no doubt factor in heavily in competitive non-partisan races – especially for school board seats. If democrats win in turnout, it probably means the status the quo will win for school board races. Democrats have had the advantage of a high-profile primary for governor that republicans haven’t had. That might be behind the under-performance of republicans thus far. That means republicans must dominate Tuesday’s turnout to flip this script not just on the turnout deficit but also school boards across the state. Democrats dominated early; will the record number of Florida republicans show up to dominate late? Speaking of registered voters...  
2. Republicans are routing Democrats. None of this matters if registered republicans choose not to vote, but the potential for an unpreceded red wave in Florida this November has never been greater. The latest monthly voter registration information from the state of Florida shows not only a record number of registered republicans in Florida, but the monthly beatdown of democrats continuing. In the final push to register voters ahead of our August primaries, republicans added 28,594 more voters than democrats in the last month alone. But no number can put what’s happened in Florida over the past four years in perspective better than this factoid. There are fewer registered democrats in Florida today, than four years ago today. Yes, Florida adds about 800 new humans a day. Yes, Florida’s Republicans have added 476,125 voters since the previous midterms but yes, there are 11,965 fewer registered democrats in our state today. The GOP is nearly a half million net voters better off, compared to four years ago today. Republicans are absolutely routing democrats in voter registration and have been for years. If they turn out to vote, there’s little doubt Florida’s republicans will rout Florida’s democrats up and down the ballot this November. And staying with elections for my final takeaway today... 
3. 20 down (at least) 136 to go. The first round of 20 arrests announced by Governor DeSantis and AG Ashley Moody last week was no doubt just the beginning of what’s to come. What’s especially notable about this is that the state of Florida’s Election Crimes Division has already moved on five times as many voter fraud cases in six weeks, as all of Florida’s 67 state attorneys combined over the past two years. Until now, four voter fraud cases had been prosecuted in Florida stemming from the 2020 election cycle. All led to convictions – including fraud sufficient to lead to a local election being overturned in Eatonville. There’s little doubt the first round of voter fraud arrests by the state, are the lowest hanging fruit from a legal perspective to prosecute. Which again begs the question, if the state could pursue prosecution in six weeks, where the heck have state attorneys, especially in South Florida, been in bringing accountability for those trying to steal elections? And for those on the left, like the ever outspoken and highly partisan League of Women Voters – who still stand opposed to the state’s new Election Crimes Division – what's been revealed is the extent to which they do feel voter fraud is permissible. The latest argument by those in favor of voter fraud on the left (which is every elected Democrat in this state along with faux non-partisan groups like the League of Women Voters) - is that it’s only 20 people. As though somehow that level of voter fraud is acceptable. Aside from exposing themselves for caring far more about winning elections, than honest elections... Nope, it’s many more. At least 136 more to be exact, just factoring in the cases officially referred but unpursued by state attorneys in Florida – but mostly South Florida.