Photo: Getty Images
Q&A of the Day – Strongest Hurricanes to Hit Florida
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Gettr, Parler & Twitter: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station’s page in the iHeart app.
Today’s entry: @brianmuddradio There’s a lot of talk of Ian being a 100-year storm. How accurate is that?
Bottom Line: Hurricane Ian is one for the history books – with damage assessment rolling in there’s no doubt this will have been one of the most devastating hurricanes in Florida’s history. And while there’s no doubt a cat 4 hurricane making landfall in Florida is always a big deal, using the 100-hundred-year storm characterization certainly ups the ante. So is Ian, potentially a 100-year storm, or is that characterization a bit off? Let’s start by talking about the major hurricanes which are known to have historically made landfall in Florida.
Since hurricane tracking was first reported in 1851, a total of 36 major hurricanes, cat 3 or above, have made landfall in Florida preceding Ian. That means Florida averages a major hurricane landfall every 4.75 years. In that regard, a cat four hurricane making landfall isn’t at all unusual. And Ian was almost right on cue. The last major hurricane landfall in Florida was Michael in 2018 – just about four years ago. But of course, not all major hurricane landfalls are created equal. There’s a huge difference based on geography and the potential impact of the hurricane to size of the population. And that’s where the characterization of a potential 100-year storm proved to be not only not be off base.... It proved to be understated.
While Florida’s panhandle, and Florida’s Gulf coast generally, have been squared up by major hurricanes from time to time, including Michael’s strike at a cat 5 in 2018, the Tampa Bay metro which when it was in the crosshairs began the 100-year chatter, hasn’t been in an awfully long time. You have to go back to 1950, and Hurricane Easy, to find a major hurricane which made landfall in the vicinity and even that one went to Cedar Key. It’s simply highly unusual for major hurricanes to find their way to Tampa Bay. So much so that the last major hurricane to hit the Tampa Bay metro directly was the Tarpon Springs hurricane of 1921. Widespread flooding was reported and eight people died in that hurricane. Of course, just about nothing in Tampa today looks today as it did then – starting with population. In 1921, Florida’s total population was 997,000. Or in other words, our state’s total population was less than a third of what the Tampa metro’s population is today – at over 3.2 million. So yes, had Ian struck Tampa Bay it would have been a 100-year storm, or 101 years to be exact. Of course, it didn’t. And by striking south at the Captiva, Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte area, it became something even greater than a 100-year storm. It was unprecedented.
While there’s a lot to sort out still about the official speed and even category, was it a four or five at landfall...? It’s stronger than the strongest hurricane to directly strike that metro – which was Hurricane Charley in 2004. The top winds at landfall were 150 mph in that storm, this checked in with winds at least five mph stronger and with a far greater storm surge and flood threat from a much larger hurricane in overall size. While top wind speeds are also what draw the lion's share of attention with hurricanes, it's the water that’s the biggest threat. Only 11% of hurricane related deaths are specific to wind damage. The balance is that threat from water – with storm surge specifically accounting for 49% of the loss of life. As damage assessment begins, what’s clear is that Hurricane Ian was the strongest hurricane at landfall on record in Southwest Florida. Official record keeping began in 1851 – meaning Ian was at least a 171-year storm.