Wind, Water & Exposure – Hurricane Risks – Top 3 Takeaways

Wind, Water & Exposure – Hurricane Risks – Top 3 Takeaways – September 29th, 2022 

1. Wind. It’s human nature to pay the most attention to the category of the hurricane and the center of the projected path. Just like it’s human nature to look at an accident on the side of the road. Both of those situations can lead to problems. Yes, you should account for wind risks with any hurricanes, including Ian, that impact us. But that’s not the only wind consideration. As we saw in South Florida, with Ian one of the greatest wind risks in hurricanes are tornadoes. Not only are tornadoes in hurricanes possible, they’re likely, and for those outside of the point of impact are often the greatest wind risk faced. Many of the Ian spawned tornadoes will take time to fully account for, however it appears at first blush that it spawned the most we’ve seen for a Florida hurricane since Irma in 2017 – another hurricane which made landfall in Southwest Florida bringing our coast numerous tornadoes in the process. According to the National Weather Service 20% of all tornadoes during the month of August and September occur in hurricanes and they’re most likely to occur 50 to 250 miles from the eye of the storm – which is where we sat in southeast Florida relative to the eye of Ian at yesterday’s landfall. The average major hurricane spawns more than two dozen tornadoes. In certain instances, like hurricane Ivan, more than 100 are possible (117). Tornadoes happen quickly generally, but in hurricanes there’s typically fewer than five minutes notice before one touches down. This is part of the reason that treating a hurricane as a spectator sport, like unnecessarily being on the roads for example, can quickly become dangerous. Sustained winds are only part of the equation. In recorded US history 8% of deaths attributed to hurricanes are due to impacts from sustained winds, 3% of deaths are from tornadoes. That’s a preview of how deadly water tends to be.  
2. Water. Water is to hurricanes what a center is to a quarterback, which in this analogy would be the wind. Without the center the quarterback isn’t getting the ball and the offense can’t run an effective play. The quarterback gets all of the attention and the center is only noticed if there’s a problem. Seldom do we pay attention to the water risk to the extent we do wind risk, but it's almost always the biggest issue. From storm surge to flooding – nothing’s been more deadly in hurricanes than water. 27% of all deaths have occurred from flooding and 49% from storm surge according to the National Hurricane Center. With South Florida saturated already saturated and more on the way – in the midst of a king tide schedule, flooding is without a doubt a risk. For most of us in South Florida, the biggest issue we tend to run into with water during storms aside from flood prone areas flooding – is saturated soil with gusts of wind leading to downed trees, limbs and power lines. In fact, for many years that has been the deadliest risk for Floridians resulting from hurricanes. Not what happens during the impact of the storm but what happens after impact. 
3. Exposure. Perhaps the most underappreciated impact of a hurricane is what happens after it’s over. And for Floridians it’s proven to be the most dangerous - time and again. Take hurricane 2017’s Hurricane Irma for example. 92 people died in the US due to the storm, but only ten during the storm. The rest of those deaths are referred to as “indirect”. The majority of indirect deaths are due to the varying effects of exposure and carelessness. Warm weather and no power for an extended period of time have proven to be a problem. For the purpose of Hurricane Ian, this is mostly a concern for those on Florida’s Gulf Coast, not ours, but if you have friends and family near the point of impact this is what we need to be mindful of starting today – in addition to overall recovery efforts.