Republicans At Peak Polling & The Abortion Miscalculation – Top 3 Takeaways – October 26th
- Political miscalculation revisited. As we’re just 13 days away from one of the most highly anticipated midterm election days of our lifetimes there’s a new political reality that ties into a previous theme of mine. From the original Supreme Court leaker in early May, to the actual decision in late June, I mentioned emphatically, that Democrats banking on abortion this election cycle were engaged in a huge political miscalculation. In the immediate aftermath of the SCOTUS leak I said this in my Top 3 Takeaways that day… There’s a good chance the political calculous of this abortion debate being good for Democrats is wrong. And if Democrats think most Americans will say screw it to 41-year high inflation and an impending recession, along with a border crisis an energy crisis, geopolitical crises all in the name of abortions on demand? They’re not only on the wrong side of science.... They’re living in an altered state of reality. All throughout the abortion debate in Florida in February, we heard most Floridians were against it. Ditto the Parental Rights in Education Legislation and the battle with Disney. And what do the polls today say? The potential for an impending DeSantis landslide this fall. The truth sets voters free and the more these conversations are had, just as was the case with legislation like the Parental Rights in Education, the more of it that will be known. And regarding the most important issue of all. The right to life. On the day I made that comment, before any potential impact of the abortion issue being in the minds of voters, Republicans held a 3-point advantage on the generic ballot. I also had this to say that day...
- Most Americans are now willing to follow the abortion science. Polling shows that only 47% of Americans consider themselves prolife, yet 71% oppose late term abortion. Why? Because somewhere along the way morality and physical reality enters the equation. Current information shows that for practical purposes, anything after 15 weeks should be considered “late-stage”. And the most recent polling, just in from Fox News, shows 54% of Americans currently favor a ban on abortion after 15 weeks – with only 41% who don’t support a 15-week abortion ban. That’s precisely what the Mississippi law before the Supreme Court calls for and it’s exactly in line with Florida’s recently enacted law. In fact, in the same polling, by a margin of 50%-46% Americans now support an abortion ban after six weeks. None of that suggests it’s the winning issue for Democrats that political pontificators seem to think it’s going to be. And with that as the backdrop, why is it that today, as we’re just 13 days away from Election Day, am I bringing this up again? Two reasons, Charlie Crist continues to make abortion the centerpiece of his campaign, as was clear during Monday night’s debate and as I depict in this week’s Midweek, Midterm Election Update, the Republican lead on the generic ballot is now back to a 3-point advantage. Exactly where it was prior to the political impact of the abortion issue in this cycle. While it’s...
- Actual votes that will determine if indeed Democrats have engaged in a political miscalculation by running on aborted babies this cycle, the polls less than two weeks prior to Election Day suggest they have. As I’ve said many times, we’re all human, even Florida’s original Orangeman. We all make lots of mistakes. But if we’re to error with our judgements in life. We should error on the side of God. And by erroring on the side of God, we should error on the side of life. Aside from the obvious need for a major political course correction in Washington, D.C., this election cycle has been about something more to me. Who we are and what we’re made of as a people. Are we a country of people who choose to error on the side of a baby with a brain and heartbeat being whacked in the womb as a priority. Or are we a country of people who are willing to error on the side of life when it’s present in the womb? I firmly believe this side of the pink shirt protestors at Monday night’s debate, it’s the latter. And I’ve believed that the more the abortion debate is had, and the more informed people become, the more likely they are to do so. Democrats, at least by way of polling, have engaged in political miscalculations as they’ve errored on the wrong side of life. Perhaps this is an election cycle where this country, as much as anything else, errors on the side of God.