The Trend w/Florida’s Early Voting Is In – Top 3 Takeaways – October 27th
- The trend in Florida voting is in with a red twist. What happened with voting patterns in 2020 didn’t stay in 2020. It’s the new partisan voting pattern in Florida. Since the onset of early voting preceding the 2020 election cycle, there was one immovable fact you could bank on each election cycle in our state. Democrats would dominate early voting and Republicans would lead in voting through vote by mail ballots. That all changed in the 2020 elections with President Trump specifically encouraging voters to vote in person, while Democrats were far less likely to want to vote in person due to the pandemic. Recently President Biden declared that “the pandemic is over”, though as he received yet another Covid booster Tuesday, he seemed to warn about another dark winter or something like that. In fairness to Biden, it’s altogether possible he’d forgotten that he’d declared the pandemic was over in September. Anyway, with three days of data on early voting having rolled in, here’s what we know. The new Florida voting trend is in. What happened in 2020 didn’t stay in 2020. With 1.7 million votes having poured in across the state already, more than any state in the country, Democrats are leading in votes cast by mail, while Republicans are leading with early in-person voting. It’s increasingly clear the new Florida partisan voting trend is in.
- So, how’s the pacing? In 2020, 45% of all votes by mail were cast by Democrats compared to just 31% by Republicans. We are we right now? 43% of vote by mail ballots have been cast by Democrats compared to 38% by Republicans. So yes, Democrats are continuing to lead the way although that advantage has been cut by 9% over the previous election cycle by Republicans. So, what’s up with Early Voting? In 2020, 45% of Early Voters were Republicans compared to 32% who were Democrats. So where are we today? 52% of Florida’s earliest, early voters are Republicans compared to 32% who are Democrats. The GOP has upped its early voting advantage by 7% thus far. So, it's obviously early, even in measuring early voting, but here’s what we know. Republicans had a historically good 2020 election cycle with a record number of Republicans elected top to bottom within the state of Florida. This cycle is pacing much better, with Republicans performing 9 points better with votes by mail and 7 points better with early voting. Early turnout suggests the early optimism by Florida’s Republicans is warranted. If these turnout trends continue through Election Day, a historical red wave will play out in Florida. But here’s the key...
- Get out and vote! Life happens. That means stuff happens. Stuff that sometimes derails our day and kills our plans. Here’s the next political trend which needs to change in Florida (and across the country for that matter). Most Republicans waiting until Election Day to vote in person. I get it, I used to be that person too. That was until Election Day 2000, when I was caught at the station longer than expected and barely made it to my polling place in time to vote. I’ve voted early ever since and frankly you should too. Let me be clear. Your vote will count every bit as much as on Election Day. Anything you’ve ever heard to the contrary is a bunch of poo and not only can I prove it, I have proven it countless times over the years. In a recent analysis for Newsmax, Dick Morris points out that voting early accomplishes two things. It ensures you don’t have an oh crap moment on Election Day that keeps you from being able to vote. But it also accomplishes something else that’s probably even further off your radar. It frees up party operatives from feeling as though they need to expend time and resources on you, to attempt make sure you get out to vote. So, in voting early you’re also allowing your party to focus on getting out the vote with those who might not be as reliable as you. As Morris pointed out, the potential impact of those two factors – those who intend to vote on Election Day but don’t because stuff happened and parties being able to activate less reliable voters is worth up to 5% of the vote. How many super important elections have been decided by 5% or less? So, by getting out to vote now, or as soon as you’re able, you’re potentially helping advance your political preferences this election cycle by even more than just the impact of your vote. So, get out and vote!