Spooky, Creepy & Terrifying – Top 3 Takeaways – October 31st
- Spooky. Whether you’re a Democrat in South Florida or as far away from us as you can be in the 48 contiguous states (in Washington state), the political environment on this Halloween, just eight days away from Election Day is increasingly spooky. As illustrated in today’s Q&A, the two South Florida Congressional seats flipped by Maria Elvira-Salazar and Carlos Gimenez just two years ago are now considered safe seats according to Nate Silver’s 538. And for an ultimate illustration of just how spooky this political environment is for Democrats generally, look no further than Washington. There, two-term incumbent Senator Patty Murray, who won reelection in 2016 by 18-points in what was a historically good cycle for Republicans as they won the presidency and complete control of congress, is currently shown with an average of just a five-point lead with the three most recent polls showing Murray leading by 8, then 6, and most recently 1. Now, do I think Murray is likely to win in the end? Probably not, but months ago I specifically used that race as a conversational inflection point. In my commentary, I said that if we’re even talking about Washington and Colorado’s senate races as being interesting on Election Day, it’ll be a red wave. Well, they’re interesting as we’re just eight days away, and so is New Hampshire’s race for that matter as well. As we’re closing in on Election Day with over 16 million votes having been cast thus far, the GOP’s map of opportunities is expanding while the map for Democrats is increasingly looking spooky with even more races to attempt to defend than anticipated.
- Creepy. It’s a way many have described President Biden (a quick search of creepy Joe Biden will net you 209 million results), and his odd proclivity for off-color remarks to young girls. But it’s also a term which could fairly describe the campaign of the politician he appears to have the most cognitively in common with this cycle. John Frankenstein, I mean Fetterman’s campaign, has been otherworldly and no doubt a bit creepy to watch play out. His debate performance last Tuesday left us with the impression he’d be better suited to be featured in a remake of the Rocky Horror Picture Show, than Mr. Smith goes to Washington. As I’ve mentioned, watching Frankenfetter on the trail feels like political rubbernecking, it’s downright disturbing. And so too are the latest round of post-debate polls for the creature of the night. There have been three post-debate sampled polls in Pennsylvania’s senate race. They all say the same thing. (The Wizard of) Oz is leading. And with PA increasingly looking likely to become a GOP hold, in my own estimations of what may be, come January in the US Senate, I now have Republicans with a greater likelihood of flipping three seats in route to winning 53 in the US Senate, then I do Democrats holding 50 to maintain control. Incidentally, in my own little configuring, the most likely outcome I’m currently showing is a 52-48 GOP majority in January, but with potentially realistic upside as high a 54 and an outside chance of 55. The point is that from Uncle Festerman in PA to potentially even Patty Murray in WA, it’s a creepy Halloween for Democrats... In addition to a regular way of life for President Biden. Meanwhile, here at home the political environment for Florida’s Democrats is...
- Terrifying. In the previous examples of Senate races in states like Pennsylvania and Washington, there’s still a good chance Democrats will win those races. While once again throwing out the disclaimer that that only polls which really matter are the ones in which we go to, to vote, so vote like your freedom depends on it, because it does and take nothing for granted... The prospects for Florida’s Democrats can best be described as terrifying. In the 2018 midterm election cycle, in which Governor DeSantis was narrowly elected and Rick Scott flipped Bill Nelson’s senate seat mind you, Democrats outvoted Florida’s Republicans by a total of 31,641 votes cast through the mail and via early voting prior to Election Day. With a week of each to go, it's evident what a difference four years has made. As of Sunday morning (reflecting all votes cast through Saturday), Republicans had outvoted Democrats by 86,047 votes. That’s already a net gain of 117,688 Republican voters, or a number greater than the margin of victory in Florida’s governor’s race, senate race and Agriculture Commissioner race combined four years ago. The pacing of Florida’s voting suggests that while a potential red wave is on the table for Republicans nationally, there may well be a red tsunami in Florida. It’s a terrifying map within Florida for our state’s Democrats with just eight days to go. Happy Halloween!