The Final Midterm Election Countdown & Numbers to watch for Tuesday – Top 3 Takeaways – November 7th, 2022
- It’s the final countdown. With Election Day only a day away we’re into the final countdown. And speaking of counting there’s already been a lot of it in Florida. With over 4.6 million ballots cast preceding Election Day, our state is second to only Texas in votes cast thus far. By way of comparison, nearly a half-million more Floridians have voted than Californians entering Election Day – a state with nearly 18-million more people. And as for who’s voting? Predominantly Republicans in record numbers. In 2018’s midterm election cycle, which featured the second highest turnout in a midterm election cycle in Florida’s history, 31,641 more Democrats had voted by mail or through early in person voting entering Election Day. In an emphatic flipping of script, Republicans now hold a remarkable 337,185 voter advantage. That’s significant for the obvious reasons, but also for a few less obvious ones as well. It’s not just that Republican turnout has surged, along with Florida’s voter registration trends, it’s that Democrat turnout is also trailing the 2018 midterm election cycle. This is proving to be a one-two punch of significant Republican voter enthusiasm alongside lower Democrat turnout. That’s true in Florida but it’s also proving to be true nationally. It’s also no mistake that Texas, the largest red state in the country, but one that still has ten-million fewer residents than California, is leading the country in voting. And yes, Republicans have outvoted Democrats in Texas thus far as well. Given that Republicans historically outvote Democrats on Election Day itself, we’re positioned for potential history in the making for Republicans across the country tomorrow. And that takes us to...
- Numbers to watch for a wave. 246 is the all-time high-water mark for Republican seats in the US House achieved in 2014. As you hear numbers thrown around for the potential number of seats which can flip, there are two which are specifically significant in the context of a wave or even tsunami type of election. The first is 30. If Republicans flip 30-House seats this cycle it will equal the total they held coming out of the historic 2010 Tea Party-led red wave cycle which resulted in the highest number of congressional seats flipping in one election cycle in American history. If they get 34 or more, it’s history for Republicans in the making. Given the uneven nature of Senate elections, the House is always the best measure of whether an election is a “wave”. If Republicans are able to win even just thirty seats, by any objective measure this would have been a “wave” election. 34 or more and it’s a red tsunami for sure. Republicans have held as many as 62 senate seats, in the wake of the Civil War, so history won’t be made there. That means the number to watch is simply 51. Or +1 for the GOP as the case may be this cycle. It’s all about assuming control, although as many have begun to note, the 2024 cycle sets up historically well for Republicans. In 2024, senate seats won by Democrats in 2018, as they gained control of congress, will be up for reelection. It’s possible that an especially strong showing this cycle in the senate for Republicans, with a minimum of 52 seats coming out of it, could set the party up for a potential filibuster proof majority if the party has a big 2024 showing. Another number to watch is...
- 30. That’s regarding governor’s races. While the high-water mark for Republican governors is 34, achieved twice (most recently in 2017), in cycles where one party or another has achieved 30 or more governor’s seats, we’ve historically seen that momentum at the state level transcend those races. Over 80% of the time, the party which wins the governor’s race, wins US senate races (if there are any in that state up for election) and a state house majority. In other words, in midterm cycles the governor’s races, where they exist, tend to set the tone within a state. With fewer and fewer split ballots over the years, a gubernatorial win means a win for that party generally within a state. You need look no further than Florida’s most recent midterm cycle in 2018, as a quintessential example of this. In a cycle dominated by Democrats, the lone senate seat which flipped from a Democrat to a Republican was in Florida. While Ron DeSantis’ win was narrow with only about 42,000 votes separating him from Tallahassee's favorite bisexual criminal, Andrew Gillum, it was still three times the margin of Rick Scott’s win over Bill Nelson. The DeSantis coattails mattered in helping pull our then-Governor through an otherwise brutal cycle for Republicans. If Republicans come out of this cycle with 30 or more governors, which would be a pick-up of two, it’ll almost certainly mean they’ll have gained at least one net senate seat for control of the upper chamber and will have sailed past the needed seats for control of the House.