Q&A of the Day – Electing a Speaker of the House
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio I heard Trump could become house speaker. Is it true that you don’t have to be a member of congress?
Bottom Line: Yes, it’s true former President Donald Trump could become Speaker of the House today, because yes, it's true that in order to be elected Speaker of the House one need not be a member of it. As most of the country is just starting to roll out of holiday mode and into the new year, there’s already high drama in Washington D.C. There are two knowns as we enter today. A new Congress will be sworn in, one in which features a Republican majority in the House for the first time in four years and Nancy Pelosi will be handing the gavel possessed by the Speaker of the House to someone. At this point, just about all other bets are off. In addressing how all of this works, in addition to whatever the heck is likely to happen with a vote for House Speaker, let's start with what the Constitution calls for. Starting with the new Congress.
Under section 1 of the 20th Amendment, it states: The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin. So, here we are on January 3rd of an odd numbered year meaning it’s go time. By the way, here’s another little nugget for you informationally while we’re talking about the 20th Amendment. How often must congress assemble? That’s addressed under Section 2 which states... The Congress shall assemble at least once in every year, and such meeting shall begin at noon on the 3d day of January, unless they shall by law appoint a different day. So, in other words, Congress must meet today but technically don’t have to again for another year. If you’re a strict believer in the concept that the best laws are the ones which aren’t made – you might find that especially compelling. So now about the brass tax pertaining to electing a speaker of the House...
Given the importance of electing a House Speaker, who is second in line to become President of the United States – behind only the Vice President, the role in electing one was addressed in Article 1 Section 2 of the Constitution. It states... The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment. So, there you go. They get to “chuse” their Speaker. This broad constitutional authority allows them to elect any legal adult 25 or older, the age requirement to be a member of the House, who is capable of carrying out the duties, Speaker. As an aside, if the House Speaker were under the age of 35 and/or not born in this county, the minimums to become president, they’d be skipped in the line of succession. But yep, that’s it and in answer to your question obviously Donald Trump meets the minimums, so if a simple majority of House members were to vote for him to be speaker, he’d be House Speaker. Incidentally, this is something I spoke to Trump about in an interview just over a year ago – he dodged the notion opting to speak specifically about Pelosi’s leadership at the time. Now about what’s likely to happen when votes for Speaker are cast...
While the House could opt for a non-member to become Speaker, they never have. Given the uncertainty surrounding the vote for House Speaker, with Republicans holding a narrow majority, in which current Republican House leader Kevin McCarthy could only lose up to four votes and still achieve a simple majority if all Democrats were to vote for a different candidate or candidates, we’re staring at about as much uncertainty as we ever have with the looming vote in the body. Meaning, that if something unprecedented were going to happen in a House Speaker vote, the recipe is ripe this time. While there’s been a bit of jockeying for position and relevance from time-to-time, including with Nancy Pelosi’s most recent vote in a similar situation with Democrats two years ago, the post has historically gone to the top ranking official in the majority party. So, if McCarthy isn’t elected Speaker, that alone would be a historical outlier – let alone if the body opted for an outsider.
For his part, Kevin McCarthy has been aggressively attempting to reign members in, in advance of the vote. This included just agreed to rule changes, if elected Speaker, which would end Nancy Pelosi’s remote proxy voting and virtual participation in hearings. Additionally, McCarthy has agreed to a rule whereby any five members of the majority party would be able to initiate a vote to remove the House Speaker and force a new leadership vote. This would obviously give tremendous leverage to dissenting Republicans within his ranks – even if he’s elected House Speaker. Two Florida Republicans have been in the mix of those potentially posing a threat to McCarthy’s bid. Congresswoman-elect Anna Paulina Luna and Congressman Matt Gaetz. Gatez recently said: In sports, when the team loses games it is supposed to win, the coach gets fired. In business, when earnings vastly miss projections, the CEO is replaced. In Republican politics, a promotion shouldn’t be failure’s chaser. So, he essentially has pinned the perceived Republican underperformance in the House at McCarthy’s feet. As for what the most likely outcome is? History would suggest it’ll be McCarthy in the end, however there’s certainly the opportunity for a first. Btw, a top source first told me last June, he believed Steve Scalise would be the next Speaker of the House. Scalise is currently number two in GOP House leadership. It could get interesting. Stand by for news...