Q&A of the Day – Are Young Voters Less Likely to ID w/a Political Party?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Social: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station’s page in the iHeart app.
Today’s Entry: You mentioned republicans now have an advantage with leaners factored in. My question is if the number of true “independents” is rising as younger generations are of voting age? We’ve heard for years that most younger voters don’t identify with any political party. Thanks.
Bottom Line: Today’s note is on the back of one of my takeaways yesterday in which Gallup identified that for the first time since 1991, when independent “leaners” are factored into party identification nationally – Republicans hold an advantage (by a 45% to 44% margin). Now specific to your question about whether fewer voters are identifying with major political parties...we do have answers. A number of research firms have tackled this topic in recent years as Millennials and Gen Z voters have begun to outnumber Baby Boomers and Gen Xers. The researcher which has gone the most in-depth with this topic is the Pew Research Center.
In 2021 Pew conducted a research project on this topic. The top line takeaways were these as they summarized:
- Younger adults are less likely to see a great deal of difference between the major political parities
- Older Democrats and Republicans are more likely to feel represented by the parties than younger Democrats and Republicans
Both of those point in the direction of the overall narrative that younger voters are less likely to identify with either political party. But in looking at the data in Pew’s research, there was one thought which jumped out at me. The lack of historical context. Think about it. Is this condition potentially being evidenced today any different than it’s been previously? Doesn’t it stand to reason that those who are the most established, experienced and knowledgeable in life generally, would be those most likely to have firm political opinions which would line up closely with one of the political parties (whether older adults feel that the parties are being especially well led at any given time or not)? Given this logical train of thought I found it important to seek historical context. And for that I didn’t need to look any further than where this conversation started. Gallup.
Given that Gallup has surveyed on this stuff annually for decades, it’s easy to see if there’s been a meaningful change in the number of political identifiers over time. Most recently, without leaners, a total of just 56% self-identify nationally with one of the major political parties (evenly split at 28% between Democrats and Republicans). Sticking with the 1991 timeline which was the basis for my original story about this topic, 64% of voters identified with one of the major political parties unprompted. So yes, there has been a decline of 7% of Americans who now self-identify without prompting with one of the major political parties. But what about by the time leaners are factored in?
Currently, in reality, 89% of all voters identify with one of the major political parties. There are only 11% who are truly “independent”, broken up into about 3% which identify with minor parties and 8% who truly lack a political predisposition. How does this compare with where we were 32 years ago? Very similarly. Back then 92% ID’d with party. So, in the most literal sense, are there fewer, especially younger, Americans who identify with a major political party than did in prior generations? Yes. Is it a large number? No. It’s only 3% fewer. What this mostly shows is that the more political times have changed, the more they’ve essentially stayed the same from a partisan voting perspective. And by the way, this is consistent with voting trends I outlined last November in the wake of the midterm elections in which Millennials, who were once thought to be extremely liberal, are actually voting more conservatively at the same age as their GenX parents did at the same age.