Q&A of the Day – Can Florida Afford Universal School Choice? - Updated
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio How much does universal school choice cost? I’ve never heard anyone talk about it. Just that we can’t afford it.
Bottom Line: As recently as yesterday in Florida’s state legislative session Florida’s HB 1, or Universal School Choice legislation was making its way through the legislative process as various proposed amendments, most from South Florida Democrat Robin Bartleman, were under consideration. The current version appears to be largely the same version which was originally proposed in the legislature. And that’s important for the purpose of attempting to figure out how much the legislation could cost and whether it’s practically affordable. This is my top priority in this year’s state legislative session and this question is a question I first addressed in a February 6th Q&A in which I concluded that it was affordable. But a lot has changed in this debate, and for that matter with the state budget, since then – making this a good time to revisit the topic as it’s currently front and center in the minds of many in Tallahassee.
Cost has been key during the debate up to this point. Not only have usual school choice opponents a la teachers unions, and elected Democrats opposed the legislation, citing cost as a reason why, Governor DeSantis has been outspoken of late in his concerns about cost. Specifically, the governor has balked at the idea that all families would have school choice vouchers regardless of means. Quoting DeSantis recently, If you have a family that's very high income - they already have school choice. They don't necessarily need to be eligible for the program. I am totally comfortable saying that if everyone in Florida who can afford it can go on their own without getting it — and everyone who can't gets a scholarship - to me that is still universal. Well, to me that is a concerning stance and for two reasons. The first is a matter of principle. Why should those who already pay the most in taxes receive the least in services for their money? Those who pay the most in taxes should have the same access to the funds used to pay for education as any other parent. The second is who becomes the arbiter of who is “high income” and who determines which family can afford options outside of the district drawn public school option? That’s a slippery slope and it’s one we have no context for in Florida given that we don’t have a state income tax and thus don’t use a progressive tax structure. Now, with that being said, DeSantis did say that it wasn’t necessarily a “deal breaker”. So, he’s still hedging his position on the issue – which to me seems to be the politically expedient thing to do as opposed to the principled one, but nevertheless... So, about the affordability thing.
First a refresh on what the bill would do:
- A student is eligible if the student is a resident of this state and is eligible to enroll in kindergarten through grade 12 in a public school
- Priority given to a student whose household income level does not exceed 185 percent ($51,338) of the federal poverty level or who is in foster care or out-of-home care
- Scholarship amounts of $7,250 to $7,850 per eligible student per year
- $750 credit towards transportation
- Immediately ends the waiting list for special needs children seeking school vouchers
- 10,000 Home School scholarships funded next school year rising by 20,000 annually through June 2027
- The law would take effect July 1st
And as for the cost, as I mentioned a month and a half ago: Does the plan require increased spending? Yes. How much? $2.5 billion for the upcoming school year. Do we have to come up with “new revenue”? Nope. Do we have to cut per pupil funding without raising taxes? Nope. Last year’s budget within the state of Florida was $109.9 billion. That accounts for the year we’re currently living in which ends in June. DeSantis’ recently proposed budget for next year calls for spending of $114.8 billion while retaining record reserves for the state (emergency funds) of $15 billion. Remember we only need to account for $2.5 billion. Florida’s economy has been so strong we’re able to increase spending by $4.9 billion while also saving $15 billion for emergencies in the process. That’s nearly $20 billion of wiggle room with which to operate. Only 12.5% of that is needed to pull off the Universal School Choice plan based on the analysis provided by the Education Law Center opposing it.
But that was then. A key development in the affordability conversation took place on Tuesday as Florida’s state economists, which determine how much revenue is available for consideration in the upcoming state budget under Florida’s balanced budget amendment, changed their forecast. Due to Florida’s unprecedented economic boom over the past year, the economists added over $7 billion in additional revenue to be allocated by the state legislature. That included an additional $4.3 billion for the fiscal year we’re in, which ends in June 30th and its $2.8 billion more for allocation during the upcoming 2023-2024 fiscal year which starts in July – which incidentally is when Florida’s Universal School Choice Plan would go into effect if signed into law. Remember, the added cost for the upcoming school year to do this is $2.5 billion. The increase we just received for next year is already larger than that entire nugget. In other words, if the legislature wanted to, they could literally pass DeSantis’ budget as presented, with Universal School Choice added into the mix. There is no longer any question as to whether Florida can afford to do it. The question is if our elected officials will chose to.