Q&A of the Day – Is the National Hurricane Center Inflating Storm Data?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Social: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station’s page in the iHeart app.
Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio Is it possible that the NHC is intentionally inflating storm data to push a climate agenda?
Bottom Line: Today’s note comes on the back of the recent decision by the National Hurricane Center to classify a storm system in January as the first storm of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season – four months after the system and theoretical subtropical storm event happened. It will remain an unnamed storm as only those which trigger advisories are named, however it does count in the tally as the first storm of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season, and one which happened in January – which is historically an extremely rare event. Since tracking began in 1850, it’s only the fifth storm known to have developed in January. For those reasons, those seeking to use weather events to advance political agendas have additional fodder to work with as a result of this development. For that matter, the April decision by the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Hurricane Ian to a Category 5 hurricane, over six months later, likewise lends itself to those who seek to seize on the perception, and to a certain extent reality, that storms are becoming more prevalent and are often worse because of manmade climate change. As is often the case, perspective in these conversations is key.
Climate change is real and always has been. That said, recent weather events aren’t worse than ever. Not even close. Earth has had a minimum of three mass extinction events prior to our arrival on this planet. They’ve included ice ages and periods of extreme heat the likes of which we’ve never known. That’s also why it’s absurd to lay climate change exclusively at the feet of humans. It’s kind of like an atheist who says there isn’t God but can’t explain how any of this happened. Balancing advances in technology which allow for discovery of systems which wouldn’t have been detected previously, with a changing climate which we can impact to some degree, along with those who have political agendas is challenging. In attempting to balance the knowns and unknowns let’s start with what we’ve known and when.
The first year we had any hurricane related info was 1850. There were six documented hurricanes that year. Consider the lack of technology and ability to track what was in the Atlantic back then. Many of the storms and hurricanes which weren’t near population zones were probably never accounted for until the satellite age in the late 1960’s as the only other data they had to go on was what was observed and documented by those involved in shipping. Which takes us to the next point. All other climate factors being equal, it’s a given that more tropical activity would be discovered over time with advances in technology.
There have been two especially significant advances in technology that dramatically have improved the detection and tracking of tropical activity. The first and the biggest was the advent of the satellite age in the late 1960’s, which was when we began to track just about everything, just about everywhere. To give you an idea of what a difference satellite technology made, consider that the year prior to full satellite tracking of the Atlantic hurricane season we had eight named storms and four hurricanes. The next year, with satellite technology in use, there were 18 named storms and 12 hurricanes. Was there really a 225% increase in tropical storms and 300% increase in hurricanes? Maybe, but doubtful. Magically, the first full year of satellite technology being used by storm trackers produced a record number of hurricanes with 12. The next biggest development has been the use of supercomputers to be able to more reliably track and forecast cycle developments, paths and intensity forecasting. Over the past thirty years forecast track accuracy has improved by 75% and intensity forecasting has improved by 50%.
In recent years advances in technology have continued to allow for better information in understanding the strength of storms anywhere in the Atlantic. This has included picking up on systems that previously would have gone undetected as was the case with the January subtropical storm this year. It also can impact storm and hurricane numbers. And as we’ve seen twice in as many months, it has led to revising storm information higher months after the systems existed. Last year alone NOAA rolled out four significant technology upgrades to cyclone tracking, modeling and predictions, so if anything, we’re likely to continue to see more revisions along with more fairly benign systems which quickly come and go being classified as storms. And that’s where the perspective from a point of comparison is key. We don’t know what we didn’t used to see in the tropics. Now we see everything and even have the ability to parse through old data to discover things which weren’t even seen when the systems were active. As for if this is all a part of a climate agenda pushed by the NHC, I don’t think so. But it can be used by opportunists to attempt to advance a climate agenda. And that’s where perspective as we’ve just discussed is key.