The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – August 9th
Bottom Line: Two weeks from today we have the first Republican Presidential Primary Debate. The GOP primary process this cycle is one unlike any other as the former President of the United States is not only running for president once again but is doing so while under a series of indictments at state and federal levels. The story to date, in this primary preseason, has been one of Trump’s perceived domination of the GOP field of candidates by way of national and state polling. Notably, Trump’s lead in national polls remains the highest it’s been yet in this cycle in the wake of the J6 related indictment. As part of this series, I’m comparing the Presidential primary support and momentum of candidates week-to-week using the RealClearPolitics average of national polls for now.
Here’s where we stand two weeks in advance of the first debate (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 54% (flat)
- DeSantis: 16% (-2)
- Ramaswamy: 6% (+1)
- Pence: 5% (+1)
- Haley: 4% (flat)
- Scott: 3% (flat)
- Christie: 2% (flat)
All other candidates are polling under 1% - though one of those candidates appears to have qualified for the first debate (more on him in a moment). Notably DeSantis’ fall has continued amid his campaign reboot over the past week. After peaking with 31% support in February, DeSantis has lost nearly half of the support he once had and needs a strong debate performance as much as anyone. As noted on Monday, one of his former top donors – Palm Beaches’ Thomas Petterfly – has shifted his focus and money to Virginia Governor Glynn Youngkin who's yet to enter the race. Meanwhile, Vivek Ramaswamy’s rise modestly continued last week leaving him in sole possession of 3rd place in the race for a second consecutive week. And former Vice President Mike Pence picked up a bit of additional support as he’s sharpened his attacks against his former boss and president in the wake of the January 6th indictment of Trump. Speaking of Pence, on Monday he became the 8th GOP candidate to qualify for the first debate – joining the other six candidates polling above 1% - and Doug Burgum, who’s campaign to issue $20 gift cards in exchange for $1 donations proved successful in netting him the needed broad base of donor support.
Trump continues to dominate the field, although, it may be possible we’re seeing the peak of Trump’s performance within the context of the current GOP field. His polling average was flat over the past week despite the January 6th related indictment. We’d previously seen a positive response in support for his candidacy by Republican primary voters following indictments. Speaking of which, there’s what appears to be another one in the offing in Fulton County Georgia this week for the former president.