Florida May Have a New Congressional Map for the 2024 Election Cycle
Bottom Line: Florida’s congressional map battles have taken many turns over the previous two redistricting cycles. It appears likely it’s about to take another turn, that could in turn, lead to a new congressional map for Florida prior to next year's elections. Once the United States Supreme Court ruled Alabama’s Congressional map was unconstitutional, as it was found to be in violation of the Voting Rights Act, it became clear that Florida’s was potentially in legal jeopardy as well. At issue, a north Florida district which had been a Black majority district represented by Al Lawson which was redistricted into a non-Black majority district resulting in a loss by Lawson last year. Florida’s current congressional map, which was drawn by Governor DeSantis, and ratified by the Legislature in a special session last year has faced lawsuits challenging it at both the state and federal levels. Resolution to the lawsuit at the state level could come as soon as next week. And resolution at the state level could potentially provide resolution in the federal challenges as well.
The state legal challenge brought by Black Voters Matter, Equal Ground, Florida Rising and the League of Women Voters has led to a key agreement with the state which limits the scope of the outstanding legal challenges in exchange for a restoration of the former Al Lawson district. In a signed Joint Stipulation, the plaintiffs have agreed to drop their allegations of partisan gerrymandering and the challenging of districts outside of the North Florida district. In exchange Florida’s Secretary of State Cord Byrd and the Florida Legislature legally acknowledged: One of the Enacted districts in North Florida are districts in which Black voters have the ability to elect their preferred candidates. That’s effectively a legally binding promise to restore the Lawson district in some capacity if the state’s map doesn’t survive legal scrutiny. A judge will hear the case in state court next Thursday and will make a determination about the map.
If Florida’s Congressional map is struck down (and if that decision is upheld by the Florida’s Supreme Court) the Legislature will redraw the map according to the resolution. If the map is upheld attention will turn to September 26th, that’s when the federal trial challenging Florida’s map is scheduled to begin. If the map is redrawn according to the resolution in state court, the potential for the federal lawsuit to be altered, dropped or dismissed may be possible. While we wait for the legal proceedings to play out, it does appear to be unlikely that districts outside of North Florida will be meaningfully changed, if at all, should there be a redrawn map.