Democrats Are Playing into Trump’s Hand – Top 3 Takeaways – September 19th, 2023
- Democrats may be unintentionally playing right into Trump’s hand. Trump’s strength as president in the eyes of the average American was policy. The economy, trade, foreign affairs, border policy – these were the strengths of the Trump presidency. The biggest weakness of Donald Trump in the eyes of the average American was himself. Or better put, his compulsion and proclivity to Tweet. Now, for two and a half years I’ve occasionally taken a crack at those who actually voted for Joe Biden in the name of mean Trump tweets – but that did happen. A study of the 2020 Presidential election by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, known as Sabato’s Crystal Ball, found that 3.7% of Trump’s 2016 voters, flipped to a vote for Joe Biden (Trump kept the election as close as he did by flipping 1.9% of Clinton’s 2016 voters over to him in 2020). Had it not been for the 3.7% who flipped from Trump, those who evidently were turned off by those mean Trump tweets, he’d have likely cruised to a reelection victory. One of the questions heading into a potential 2024 rematch is whether Trump voters from 2016, who flipped to Biden in 2020, could flip back to Trump again. The answer clearly is that we don’t know until we get there. But the road map for getting there may already be in place and the Democrats plan of prosecutions may prove to play into Trump’s hand.
- How much have you heard from Donald Trump in recent months? Unless you’re going out of your way to hear him, and even then, not much, right? And what has he been doing on the platform formerly known as Twitter? Not much, right? Literally his only post on the platform since he was deplatformed as president was his Fulton County mug shot in August. Yes, he’s active on Truth Social, which appears likely to remain the case as long as he has a financial interest in it – however it’s impact and reach is far more limited than X. And when you have heard from Trump a la the Tucker Carlson interview, the Megyn Kelly interview and even the Meet the Press interview he’s been measured in his approach and reasoned with his words. And what’s been happening? While Trump’s personal presence has been far more muted than it once was... Trump’s been rising. For a while Trump’s fortunes in a 2020 rematch appeared to be rising due to Biden’s fortune’s falling. While that remains the case, Trump’s personal fortunes have been rising. Donald Trump left office with a 38% favorability rating and while it’s bounced around a bit, it bottomed in December of last year at 36%. But since then, it’s slowly been on the rise and most recently Trump’s viewed favorably by an average of 40% of Americans. And that’s after four indictments. Is it great? No. But what it is...
- Is the first time Joe Biden and Donald Trump have had the same favorability rating. That's a big deal. Trump is viewed favorably by the exact same percentage of people that Biden currently is. So now we’re faced with a potential presidential rematch of equally disliked presidents. But one has a track record of positive policy positions, and one has an ongoing track record of failure in addition to what appears to be a case of dementia. And what we also have is a story of a former president on the rise, with the current president on the decline, in more ways than one. And this takes me back to the point about Democrats potentially playing into Trump’s hand. Trump’s been more measured in part because he’s been distracted with his legal proceedings stemming from the four indictments and in part because he’s likely more restrained about what he says due to the potential for legal jeopardy based on what he might say in certain cases. And on that note Special Prosecutor Jack Smith is seeking to limit more of what Trump can say in the January 6th case through a limited gag order. Trump’s team is opposed to this for the obvious reasons stating after the filing: Crooked Joe Biden’s weaponized DOJ are corruptly and cynically continuing to attempt to deprive President Trump of his First Amendment rights. But the reality is that if Donald Trump wants to win next year’s presidential election, there are few things worse for him talk about than the previous presidential election. A gag order against Trump pertaining to that case would do nothing but play to the political advantage of Trump, provided that he was to comply with it. In fact, that’s essentially the case in all of his cases. Trump is at his best and playing to his strength’s politically when he’s talking policy and focused on the issues. He’s at his worst when he’s lamenting “rigged” elections and offending the easily offendable on social media. Is what’s happening to him politically motivated? No doubt. Is it election interference? It can certainly be argued. But is it potentially helpful to Donald Trump in the context of attempting to win the next presidential election? Quite possibly. It’s well known that to the extent the indictments have impacted the Republican primary race, there’s been a bit of a rally around Trump effect. It’s been a positive. But what hasn’t been widely discussed is that the byproduct of these indictments has been playing into Trump’s best political hand in a general election as well. Not only is Trump’s national favorability rating four points higher than prior to his first indictment, his average performance in the polls head-to-head with Joe Biden is three points better as well. What we’ve started to see is that those who were with Trump in 2016 that defected for Biden in 2020, are starting to come back around to Trump. After a year dedicated to Trump indictments, with what Democrats hope will be a year of trials to follow, Trump is in a far better political position today than he was a year ago. That includes now holding an outright average polling advantage against Joe Biden head-to-head. If the next year plays out like this year has so far, the Democrats will have played straight into Trump’s hand by overplaying theirs.