The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – September 27th
Bottom Line: Tonight, the second Republican Primary Debate takes place. And entering the second debate it’s clear who the biggest winner of the first debate was...Donald Trump – who skipped the debate as he will the second. Trump’s polling lead is now 43-points over his closest competition (Ron DeSantis). That’s a lead that’s three points higher than prior to the first debate. Only two other candidates are polling higher than they were prior to that first debate: Nikki Haley and Mike Pence. The former and perhaps future President of the United States continues to dominate the field of candidates in the face of four looming criminal cases which he faces heading into next year’s presidential election year.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the current average of national polls which also factored into which candidates were eligible to participate in the 2nd debate (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 57% (flat)
- DeSantis: 14% (+1)
- Ramaswamy: 7% (flat)
- Haley: 5% (-1)
- Pence: 4% (-1)
- Christie: 3% (flat)
- Scott: 3% (flat)
- Burgum: 1% (+1)
Trump’s 57% support among GOP primary voters exceeds the level of support he had a year ago when only a few candidates were polled alongside him. Trump remains at a high-water mark in this cycle. As for the other candidates, we’ve had small moves in which DeSantis gained a bit of support at the expense of Nikki Haley and Doug Burgum has gained at the expense of Mike Pence. The primary contest is still about what happens in individual states, as opposed to national polls, however those have been favorable for Trump as well. Trump enjoys a current polling lead of 34-points in Iowa, 28-points in New Hampshire, 32-points in South Carolina and 31-points in Nevada.
As for tonight’s debate, the candidates which will participate are: Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Tim Scott and Doug Burgum. Until next week...