A Trump Tide Turning? – October 16th, 2023
- Has the tide turned? As a lifelong saltwater bug who regularly watches the very moment the tide turns, often these days with a glass of wine in hand with my wife Ashley on the weekend, the ripples from the distance which create instant waves even on the calmest of days is unmistakable. And while the changing of tides brings about a visible difference on the surface, the implications are far more significant for what’s below the water’s surface. To provide you with an idea a recently released comprehensive study of tides on over 180 marine animals found...waves and tides have a bigger impact on marine life than anything else – including human activity and over half of all marine species have a change in behavior with the changing of the tides. Now my top takeaway today isn’t about a random musing of one of my passions, it did however come to mind as I was studying the results of the Louisiana elections on Saturday. The bottom line was this, the results of the Louisiana primary elections were the best and biggest results for Republicans in the state since 2011 – at the apex of the Tea Party movement. What you might call a political King Tide of sorts. While it’s worth noting, and I’m quick to point out, that Republicans did in fact win last year’s midterm election cycle – with Republicans capturing 2.8% more votes than Democrats nationwide last year – there's also no doubt that it was a disappoint for the GOP as what was expected to be a red wave, perhaps even a tsunami, turned out to be only a red ripple – akin to the changing of the tide on the wide water of the intracoastal as opposed to the open ocean. And the story last year was simple.
- Trump-backed candidates underperforming in race after race. Well, that didn’t happen in Louisiana on Saturday where Trump-backed Jeff Landry flipped the governor’s seat in the state in dramatic fashion. Landry didn’t just flip the seat – he buried the competition winning by 26-points. A quick check of Louisiana's electoral history showed that there’s only one other time in the state’s history in which Republicans flipped the Governor’s race by a margin as large as what happened on Saturday (1995 by 27 points). And the GOP success didn’t stop there as it translated down ballot. This was effectively the third best statewide election result for Republicans in Louisiana's history...which begs the question as to if the tide has turned in favor of Trump, his backed candidates, and potentially the perception of his ability to influence outcomes. It’s way too early to tell but there will be two other key elections next month – in Kentucky and Virigina - that will help tell the story. But there are some indications that a
- Trump-led wave may be in the offing heading into next year. It’s not worth diving into Trump’s dominance thus far in the GOP presidential race. It would literally take something historic, as in – never happened in American history before – for someone not named Donald Trump to be the GOP nominee. Consider this... On November 8th, 2022 – the midterm Election Day, Joe Biden was tied in an average of polls with Trump. Now Trump leads Biden in an average of the polls. On Election Day last year President Biden’s average approval rating was 42% - now it’s 40. Republicans led on the generic ballot by 2.5% - which was extremely accurate in projecting the 2.8% actual result btw, and Republicans lead by 1-point on the generic ballot question today. And so, the point of that short synopsis is this. The Republican Party as a brand isn’t stronger today than it was a year ago today (which isn’t surprising given the ongoing issues to lead in the House) - it’s actually slightly weaker. Speaking of weaker – while Democrats as a brand aren’t weaker than a year ago today, at least in comparison to Republicans – Joe Biden is. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is slightly in a stronger position than he was a year ago. In other words, Joe Biden is underperforming his party politically in the minds of most Americans, and Donald Trump is outperforming his party relative to where they and he were a year ago in the minds of most Americans. And what’s the result? A near historic performance for Republicans in Louisiana with Trump-backed candidates winning bigly and flipping the state in the process. It’s but one state that Trump won twice, thus what comes next in Kentucky and Virigina will be bigger tells...but what we might have witnessed in Louisiana this weekend could have been an indication of the changing of the political tides for Donald Trump and his preferred candidates in election outcomes.