Generational Political Change Is Here - Top 3 Takeaways – December 4th, 2023
- Something huge is happening here. That was my top takeaway on October 22nd, 2021. It was the first day that I had begun to uncover data that pointed towards a historical political shift in this country – and as I pointed out at the time – the epicenter of the potential historical shift was happening in Florida. We certainly saw that manifest itself in Florida’s historic 2022 elections. One of the biggest questions as we enter the crucial 2024 election cycle is whether it will show up again. I’m reflecting on this prospect, as I close out this year with you today. Prior to the week of Thanksgiving, I’d not taken any time off this year, and after today I’ll be off until after the holidays (though you will frequently hear me filling in for Mark Levin during the holiday season). After today Joel will have news of the day along with a heavy mix of relevant content from me he’ll play for you daily. Anyway, I want to walk you back to what my takeaways were on October 22nd, 2021, because the message today as we prepare for the most important election cycle of our lifetimes, is more important and more relevant than it was then. What I’m getting ready to share with you is exactly what I said, only updated with the current information – over two years later. Here goes... Something huge is happening here, as in Florida, but also the country more broadly. As part of today’s Q&A (from October 22nd, 2021) I researched President Biden’s approval rating by state. On the one hand the results weren’t terribly surprising to me. Yes, his approval ratings are under water in 14 states he won last year – which is a big number (that number is up to 22 today – Biden is only approved of in three states currently) but then again when your national approval rating is hovering around 40% give or take (that’s the same) that’s going to necessarily be the case. The real eye opener is where his approval ratings are worst. Not as in geography but rather demographics. For as long as I’ve studied politics there’s been one consistent truism. The youngest voters are those most likely to support Democrats. Typically, it takes family formation and career development (paying taxes), to open the eyes of the previously idealistic kids. I’ve literally never seen anything to the contrary until now. But this is different and something huge is happening here. President Biden’s approval ratings are now worst youngest. Among voters 18-34 his approval rating stands at 35% (today that’s down to 29%). That’s four points lower than any other age range (make that 5 now). Incidentally, that 35% figure is true of younger Floridians as well (only 26% of Florida voters 18-34 approve of Biden today). I’m sure there’s more than just one reason for such disapproval by the youngest voters, he’s been underwater with them since early June, but one might imagine that Biden’s vaccine mandate plays a meaningful role here. Vaccination rates are lowest youngest, with only 54% of those in their 20’s vaccinated in Florida for example, and it stands to reason that those who’ve opted not to obtain a vaccine for health reasons up to now don’t take kindly to being threatened with their jobs when they’re starting to make their way in the world and are planning for their family. This means there’s...
- A generational opportunity for Republicans. Look, I’m the real-life walking talking Alex P. Keaton. Loving Reagan as a kid was a thing for me and millions in my generation. He’s the primary reason that those of us who were products of the 80’s, Gen Xer’s, tend to be more conservative than Boomers or Millennials. Anyway, that’s the generational opportunity in front of Republicans rights now. We’ve discussed how Biden’s performance is the worst by any president since Jimmy Carter. And in the context of it being darkest before dawn, I’ve pointed out that it took Jimmy Carter for us to get Ronald Reagan. So here we are. The generational opportunity for Republicans if they can emulate the principals of Ronald Reagan. Starting with freedom and liberty. The biggest teachable moment in the here and now isn’t about taxes or welfare or free puppies and Biden bucks and goodies that are anything but free.
- It’s about freedom itself. Americans inherently want it. The big lie about the left and the Democrat Party generally, is that they’re “liberal”, which is often confused by kids/young adults to equal liberty, so they’ve often taught that’s the way to go. That’s all part of the marketing scam in which they’ll refer to themselves as Democratic as opposed Democrats. That’s a ruse to confuse immigrants and people coming of age who aren’t yet politically aware and want to support the democratic process. The Republican Party, with good leadership, is the party of freedom, of liberty and personal choice. The Democrats are the party of dictates, mandates, and censorship. This is now being realized by the youngest voters in this country. This is a generational opportunity and there’s a need for Reagan conservatives leading the party. It’s striking to me how the only thing that’s changed in over two years, other than COVID being front and center in the conversation, has been a continuation of the generational opportunity and the generational trends that I identified back then. And importantly we’re seeing this show up in Florida’s voter registration trends. I’ve often spoken of the historic gains Republicans have made in voter registration trends in Florida. What I haven’t often spoken of is demographically where the biggest shifts in behavior are coming from. In 2020, 40% of voters between the ages of 18-34 were registered Democrats with only 25% who were registered Republicans (the balanced of which were registered NPAs). What’s happened since? 27% of voters between the ages of 18-34 have registered as Republicans with only 26% who’ve registered as Democrats (with the balanced registering as NPA’s). It’s the first time in Florida’s history that the youngest voters have been more likely to register as Republicans than Democrats. And that’s a far larger shift than with any other age group. The trend was central to the record Republican wins in Florida last year, and actually is larger than even the shift towards the right by Hispanic/Latino voters in the state as well (which is another powerful trend). A second coming of the Reagan revolution has quietly been playing out in Florida due to DeSantis’ Reagan-like leadership as governor. The opportunity exists to do the same nationally as well with young voters across the country who are the most displeased with President Biden of any demographic group. Yes, some of the youngest voters are unhappy with Biden began he’s not “leftist” enough for them, however Florida’s example suggests there are far more of them that are simply looking for good leadership that leads to better results for them. That’s where generational opportunity exists and perhaps has never been greater in modern political history. I’m increasingly optimistic that a Floridian will not only be the Republican nominee for president, but that a Floridian will have the opportunity to “Make America Florida”, starting in January of 2025. This off election year has brought about as much subtle change in the electorate as I’ve studied during the course of my 25+ year career. I’m optimistic about what the future holds. After all, it’s always darkest before dawn, and Florida’s electorate not-so-coincidentally is the most demographically representative of the country as a whole. Thank you for listening and yet another great year. My God bless you. Happy Hanukah, Merry Christmas and cheers to what will be, I believe, the most important and pivotal new year of our lives. I’ll look forward to talking with you then.