Beware of the Bahamas & Trump Prosecutors Beware Generally - Top 3 Takeaways – February 16th, 2024
- Be careful what you wish for. A political witch hunt may come back to bite you. 2023’s rush to indict Trump by factions and political interests near and far appears to be on the verge of politically, and in some instances personally, backfiring big time. In the irony of ironies two of them came closer to a head yesterday in the form of major developments in the two state cases brought against the former and perhaps future President of the United States in New York and Georgia. And while the news may have not have been portrayed it quite this way – there was a great deal of good news for team Trump rendered yesterday. First in New York, where the judge in the case refused the Trump team’s motion and finalized a trial start of March 25th, that’d only previously been penciled in. Now you may be wondering how this could be good news for Trump. After all it would theoretically have been better if the case were dismissed. The answer to that question isn’t as straight forward as it appears. If we’re talking about legal matters purely in a legal context, then that would be correct. But we’re not. We’re talking about legal matters in the context of a presidential election. Between now and November the court that matters most to Donald Trump is the court of public opinion. If Donald Trump is elected President of the United States, the potential legal jeopardy he faces, mitigates and in the context of the federal cases, is eliminated. That means that whatever is best for Trump politically is also best for Trump legally. And the single best thing that can happen politically in a court room for Trump this year is what can be achieved in New York. The desire and the intention of the prosecutors in these Trump cases was always for Jack Smith’s January 6th case to go first. That’s the case that is potentially the most damaging in the court of public opinion to the former president and it’s the case that carries the most legal jeopardy as it’s to be held in Washington D.C., a location where Donald Trump won only 5% of the vote in 2020. For many months that trial had been scheduled to start March 4th, however the recent indefinite postponement of that trial pending the outcome of Trump’s presidential immunity challenge before the courts, means that at the soonest start date for that trial could be rescheduled is at least a couple months away and likely a bit longer. So,
- Enter the Stormy Daniels Hush money case. The case, in which if tried first, there is no losing for Trump. What Trump’s being tried for literally was out in the open prior to the 2016 presidential election and it obviously didn’t hurt him politically then. Just as was the case last year with the series of indictments, the public interest in these matters is highest with what comes first. When the first trial to be brought against Trump is Stormy Freaking Daniels hush money...again there’s no losing here for Trump. If he wins in this case, he’s vindicated, and he’ll highlight everything he’s been put through for a political witch hunt. If he loses, aside from making an appeal on the basis that the statute of limitations had already run on these charges, he’ll claim it’s a political witch hunt and election interference using it to cast as a shadow over other potentially more relevant cases to come. A conviction in that case, which the American public at large didn’t care about eight years ago and certainly doesn’t today, would potentially mitigate the extent of the potential negative impact of say a January 6th case conviction if that were to occur. And that takes us to what happened in Georgia. It was a bad day for Fulton County DA Fanni Willis yesterday. No, she wasn’t on trial yesterday. Yes, whether she’s going to be able to go to trial against Trump and Co. in the cases she brought was. And what was testified to in the court room was devasting for Willis as her former close friend testified to having known of Wills being romantically involved with the prosecutor she hired to try the Trump case for above market rates, as far back as 2019. And Nathan Wade, the prosecutor in question, tried as he might to avoid giving direct answers, but in the end testified to having documentation for extensive personal travel with DA Willis, though he claims he was paid back in cash. Maybe by cash he means... And then there was the decision by the DA to take the stand herself. It’s hard to put to words just how damaging her testimony was to her credibility. If anyone ever wondered if you need to be wicked smart to pass the bar and super impressive to become a DA... Just watch what happened in the Fulton County courtroom yesterday. Anyway, here’s the irony. Not only is the entire Fulton County case in jeopardy of going away, so too could Willis herself at the end of all of this. She wanted this trial to try to make her mark politically as being the D.A. who took Trump down. In the end she might just lose her case but potentially her job and more. She got what she wanted with her Trump trial, and it just might take her down and Nathan Wade too, his testimony was self-incriminating. After yesterday’s festivities in Atlanta, I’m of the belief that Wade and Willis have more legal jeopardy in the Trump & co. cases, than Trump does. Prosecutors... be careful what you wish for.
- Beware of the Bahamas. Following the horrific drugging and raping of two mothers from Kentucky at Pirate’s Cove in Freeport recently, while on an excursion offered through Carnival, Carnival Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean have now advised passengers to “stay on the ship” while in port on Grand Bahama or Nassau. I would say it’s better late than never, except that wouldn’t be true of the two women brutalized at Pirate’s Cove. Notably, it was only on January 26th, when the U.S. Embassy in Nassau put out an enhanced security warning for Americans traveling to the Bahamas. The state department had raised the Travel Advisory to a level 2 warning which means “Exercise Increased Caution”. This follows rising violence and lawlessness monitored in the islands. In response to the advisory, Carnival at the time said this: We are aware of the advisory from the U.S. Embassy in Nassau. As part of our regular safety and security procedures, we are routinely monitoring the local destinations our ships visit, relying on government and law enforcement expertise. And yet there was no change in the communication to passengers cruising with them until after two of their passengers had become victims. The state department hasn’t changed their guidance, only the cruise lines. Beware of the Bahamas, especially Grand Bahama and Nassau. And it’s a reminder that it’s wise to check the state department’s guidance on a location you’re traveling to as opposed to the company that's being paid to take you there.