Trump’s Jury & The Early Verdict is in on Florida’s Abortion Amendment - Top 3 Takeaways – April 16th, 2024
- Who doesn’t? Love him or hate him there’s one thing the former and perhaps future President of the United States elicits and that’s strong opinions. As a believer in this country, the greatest in the history of the world (that’s currently at serious risk of becoming something less than that), I’m inclined to pay deference to our system of justice. That is to say that yes, there are injustices within our justice system, because humans run it and humans are fallible, but that on balance it works. I’m not as quick as some on the left or the right to make broad proclamations about the justice system being corrupted or full of injustice or what have you. With that said, the current, and potentially only, criminal case involving Donald Trump is set to test us as a country. We have the former President of the United States standing trial on 34 criminal charges for a non-disclosure agreement for $130,000 that took place in 2016, and that was violated by the recipient – without consequence for her. It would not be a stretch to say that this case is potentially the most overcharged we’ve ever seen. Just as it might not be a stretch to say that the jury questionnaire might be the most intrusive, we’ve ever seen. The 42-question jury questionnaire approved by the judge overseeing the case and issued to prospective jurors was easily the most intrusive I’ve ever seen. Among the questions in the questionnaire are these... What neighborhood do you live in? Who is your current employer? Who was your prior employer? If you’re married or living with someone else what do they do for a living? What do you like to do in your spare time? Which of the (listed) publications, programs, media, blogs and websites do you visit, read, or watch? Do you listen to or watch podcasts? Which ones? Do you listen to talk radio? Have you ever attended a rally or campaign event for Donald Trump? Are you signed up for any newsletter or email run by or on behalf of Mr. Trump or the Trump Organization? Do you follow Donald Trump on any social media? Have you ever attended a rally or campaign event for any anti-Trump group or organization. Do you have any feelings or opinions about how Mr. Trump is being treated in this case? Do you have any strong opinions or firmly held beliefs about former President Donald Trump that would interfere with your ability to be a fair and impartial juror? I mean seriously? Encino Man has an opinion about Donald Trump’s treatment in this case. The only question the judge didn’t evidently allow the prosecution to ask is whether they voted for Donald Trump.
- The questions are so personally identifying that it will be virtually a given that strong political and personality profiles will exist for every juror. From there it will simply be a numbers game. With each side able to rule out a set number of prospective jurors what will the final field look like? It’s not an oversimplification to suggest that it’s likely the entire outcome of the case will rest within the jury selection process. As is standard operating procedure, following the jury questionnaire the prosecution and the defense team has the opportunity to further question prospective jurors in route to the selection of 12 to serve on this trial’s jury. There were 1,500 summoned to the New York City Courthouse for jury selection yesterday across all cases, 200 down selected for cases, 96 to Trump’s case and there were 46 left who said they could be fair and impartial (meaning over half openly admitted they couldn’t be). Given how transparent the jurors will be in this process, you’ll likely have an idea of who’s on this jury by reading the tea leaves of the prosecution and the defense following the jury selection process, and thus potentially, the outcome of this case. A case that’s both as flimsy but as politically charged as this one has the potential to test the limits of the judicial system within our representative republic. It’s one of the many reasons it should have never been brought. Speaking of an issue all adults have an opinion on and all Floridians will be voting on this fall...
- 0 for 2. It’s now been two weeks since Florida’s Supreme Court green lighted Florida’s new abortion laws, which means as of May 1st there will be a six-week limit with exceptions. It’s also been two weeks since the Supreme Court green lighted the proposed constitutional amendment which would allow for abortions up to the point of “viability”. We also have now had two accredited polls sampling support for Florida’s proposed abortion amendment and the survey says...abortion is 0-2 so far. The proposed amendment, which needs 60% support to pass, first polled at under 50% last week and in the USA Today/Ipsos poll published yesterday the number was 50%. Notably, even a quarter of Florida’s registered Democrats don’t currently support the measure and only 52% of Florida’s independents do. Two weeks, two polls and two indications that the prolife position is on track to win this November. Attempting to raise support by a minimum of 10% for an issue like abortion between now and November may not be impossible but it is improbable. Who doesn’t have an opinion about abortion? And the bigger problem for the backers may be what happens as Floridians become more informed about what the amendment would mean. How many people really think an abortion in week 23, 24, 25 or potentially even later is the right thing to do? In other words, the more voters know about the amendment the less likely they are to support it. How do we know that’s likely the case? The initial polling last November, before most Floridians knew what the details of the proposed amendment would be, showed 62% support. In 2022 during the initial abortion debate in Florida I highlighted this polling result: Polling shows that only 47% of people consider themselves prolife, yet 71% oppose late term abortion. Why? Because somewhere along the way morality and physical reality enters the equation. Current information shows that for practical purposes, anything after 15-weeks should be considered “late-stage”. Floridians have previously expressed wide acceptance for a 15-week limit but not beyond that limit. The Roe standard was 20 weeks. It’s therefore a tough sell in this state (and hopefully would be in most states) that abortions 25 weeks or potentially even further out should be enshrined in Florida’s constitution.