Trump Trial, Foreign Aid & Saharan Dust - Top 3 Takeaways – April 22nd, 2024
- Let the absurdities begin. With twelve jurors and six alternates in place what’s potentially the most absurd case in American history is set to take place. Just how absurd is the Donald Trump “hush money case”? It’s already cost the state of New York far more to select a jury for the trial, as opening arguments are set to get underway, than the total amount of money in question from the 2016 non-disclosure agreement between Donald Trump and Stormy Daniels. The one that she violated without consequence mind you. While the NDA was $130,000, the daily cost for New York to conduct this trial is approximately $50,000. Given the current guidance by the judge for the length of the trial, it’s likely the state of New York will have spent around $2 million, or an amount that is over 15x the total amount of the NDA in question in this effort to “get Trump”. Independent of any other factors, likefor example the statute of limitations had already run on this case prior to charges being brought against the former and perhaps future President of the United States, how truly absurd is it for the state to spend over 15x the money in question to attempt to gain a conviction for, what’s at worst, a petty victimless crime even if there were a crime committed? Surely by objective standards that’s absurd but it’s a campaign donation in kind to President Biden that New York prosecutors are more than happy to make. And speaking of absurd – the jury. Impartiality will truly be tested here because if Donad Trump has any chance of avoiding a conviction in this case, he’s likely to need it. The profiles of the twelve seated jurors would suggest there’s not a single person who’s likely partial to Trump on it. It was always going to be a challenge for Donald Trump to get a balanced jury in a location where he garnered only 14.5% of the vote most recently...and by all initial accounts it’s proved to be too much of a challenge. On the one hand, it’s not especially fair to look at the profile questions of jurors and infer essentially who they are and what they’re about from them. On the other hand, there’s a reason profiles exist and are effective tools – whether we’re talking about law enforcement or in this instance jury selection. When you start against the backdrop that fewer than one-in-five people within the potential jury pool have supported Donald Trump politically, the easier it is still to make deductions from profiles. There’s not a single seated juror that has the profile of a likely Trump supporter. Let the absurdities begin. Speaking of absurdities...
- In Need of Aid. Over the weekend the House of Representatives passed three standalone bills for aid to Ukraine ($61 billion), Israel ($26 billion) and Tawain ($8 billion) - also the House passed another proposed ban of TikTok – which is worth keeping an eye on. Would I have voted for the Ukrainian aid? No. Our country is going on being $35 trillion in debt and there’s been zero accountability or transparency for previously dispersed aid. Also, there’s zero indication that the war will end with this aid. Would I have voted for the Israeli aid? Yes, Israel is under an unprecedented threat from all of the bad actors in the region that could result in effectively WWIII – if allowed to persist. Also, Israel will use the resources to end their war given the chance to do so by the United States. Similarly, if Taiwan falls to China, China will only become more emboldened seeking to continue their conquest of countries in the Asia-Pacific region furthering their threat the US and the rest of the world. But while I would have voted against most of what was spent over the weekend, what I wouldn’t do is vote to take out Speaker Mike Johnson. As I mentioned last fall when Speaker Johnson took over from ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy... The fact of the matter is that when you control only one-third of the federal government the best you can typically do from that party’s political perspective is to not make the existing policy worse. It wasn’t Kevin McCarthy’s fault that Joe Biden became president and Democrats control the senate. It’s not Mike Johnson’s either. McCarthy should never have been ousted, as I predicted at the time there would be no difference with Mike Johnson – which there hasn’t been. Likewise, there shouldn’t be an effort to oust Mike Johnson now and there is. This week will be important to survive for Speaker Johnson if it is to survive with Margorie Taylor Green’s potentially suicidal motion to vacate outstanding and additional Republicans lacking pragmatism gravitating towards it. Mike Johnson is in need of aid himself and it might come in the form of Democrat support to keep him as speaker if it gets that far.
- Not so fast. If you’re looking for potentially good news to start this week, consider this note from The Weather Channel about the upcoming hurricane season we’ve already been told could be “explosive” in terms of its activity. It could be a case of Saharan dust to the rescue. As noted by The Weather Channel there’s been an unusually high level of Saharan dust kicked up into Europe in recent months due to the impact of last year’s El Nino cycle. While we’re losing the benefit of El Nino in terms of mitigating hurricanes this year, we may be gaining a tailwind of Saharan dust from it this year. As winds continue to shift further in this direction from Africa as we approach summer, that dust will being making its way towards us. Right now, it looks as though it could continue at unusually high levels through much of the hurricane season. Dry air and dust are a great combination for keeping tropical development at bay. If that happens this season just may not be so “explosive” after all.