June's Hurricane History - 2024
Bottom Line: Hurricane season kicks off Saturday amid a preseason of ominous hurricane season predictions. While this year’s hurricane season is expected to be a historically active one, thankfully this year’s preseason hasn’t been. For just the second time in over the previous ten years we’re positioned to begin hurricane season without having had a tropical system develop ahead of it. Hopefully that’s a good omen for what’s to come as well.
As we enter this year’s hurricane season, we do so with Southeast Florida having been fortunate in recent years. The last storm to register hurricane force winds in our area was Irma in 2017 as she made her way through the Keys and up Florida’s Gulf Coast. The last hurricane to make a direct landfall in Southeast Florida was Wilma in 2005. Here’s to hoping we add another uneventful year to the tally.
After having had one of the strongest El Nino cycles on record last year, the least favorable cycle for Atlantic development, we’re heading towards a La Nina cycle which creates favorable conditions for development. That, along with especially high air and water temps, are responsible for the active hurricane season forecasts.
According to NOAA, here’s what we should expect based on the midpoint of their guidance:
- 85% chance for an above active season
- 21 storms
- 11 hurricanes – 6 major (cat 3 or above)
As for what June has historically produced... Since the onset of record keeping for tropical storms and hurricanes in 1851...
- 5% of all tropical storms
- 3% of all hurricanes
Something to keep in mind is that June storms generally form closer to the US and are more likely to make landfall. While just 3% of all hurricanes have formed in June, 7% of all landfalls in the US have occurred during the month. Also, historically, about 3% of the storms that form occur prior to hurricane season... So, statistically we’re already a little of the way through the season as it starts.