Trump’s Conviction Will Be Overturned & The Political Impact of Lawfare - Top 3 Takeaways
- Trump’s conviction will be overturned. Maybe you’ve thought it. Objectively with the violations of due process in Judge Juan Merchan’s handling of Trump’s New York State case that led to his criminal conviction on 34 counts it should happen. But while we wait, watch and see what will be with the eventual appeals process that will come into play following the sentencing of the former and perhaps future President of the United States (the sentencing is scheduled for July 11th) – former U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr is predicting that it will happen. Bill Barr, the two-time AG that famously had a falling out with Donald Trump following the 2020 election – leading to Barr leaving his post as AG prior to January 6th – told Fox News that an overturning of the conviction would be forthcoming. In fact, he had a lot more to say than just that. Quoting Barr: When people were talking about it, I said that the case was an abomination, and I didn't think it was going to be brought at the end of the day because it was so vaporous. I was surprised they went ahead with it… it was an abomination. And everyone's talked about that. But you think about, how are the American people going to react in a very close election if Trump loses and this case is overturned - which it will be, this case will be overturned. It's unfair to the voter. And, you know, the co-conspirator in all of this is the mainstream media. Yeah. Who will not talk about the issues or give honest reports on anything. And boom goes the dynamite. He also added this: I think the Justice Department knows that the facts alleged in this case would not have constituted a federal campaign violation. If they keep this gag order on them. Again, it's unprecedented and crazy that you have a major candidate who can't defend himself. The lazy analysis on this by the left has been that he was an AG for Trump so what would you expect. The more thoughtful analysis on this is that Bill Barr didn’t just have a falling out with the former president he became a vocal critic of the former president. In fact, he wrote a book that was in part about it. In Barr’s book he said of Trump: (He) has neither the temperament nor persuasive powers to be an effective president. He referred to him as being off the rails. In other words, Barr is no Trump apologist, but he is one of the most accomplished legal minds of the modern era and he knows, in his words, an abomination, when he sees it. And the New York state case is it. However as legal scholar Jonathan Turley points out a resolution to the review process for an appeal to lead to the conviction being overturned can’t be expected to occur prior to November’s election which means that if Trump is going to win the election, he’s going to need to do so while being tagged as a convicted felon. So, about that...
- It’s backfiring. We’ve now had a full week to absorb the initial impact of Trump’s criminal conviction and what’s clear is that to the extent that there’s been any measurable impact... The lawfare campaign against Trump appears to be backfiring. Here are three temperature checks to consider. Each one is just a little bit different than the next. The first is the most favorable of the three for President Biden. Trump’s average head-to-head polling lead on the day the jury’s decision dropped was 0.9%. Trump’s head-to-head polling lead one week later was 0.5%. That’s it. And as I mentioned that’s the best news for Biden. It gets worse and then still worse for him from there. Trump’s 5-way polling advantage (with third party candidates added in) was 1.8% the day the jury’s verdict dropped. One week later it had grown to 2.1%. Now, we’re five months away from Election Day and these are the averages from political polls so it’s not wise to try to infer too much from those small moves. But that’s the first and perhaps most important point. Just how small the moves have initially been. When there’s major news that impacts public opinion, the initial read has historically been the most exaggerated read. For example, on September 10th, 2001, George W. Bush’s approval rating averaged 53%. One week later it averaged 86%. The impact of September 11th and George W. Bush’s initial handling of it led to a 33% gain. Similarly, Barrack Obama’s average approval rating on the day that Osama Bin Laden was killed was 47%. One week later it was 52%. The killing of Bin Laden and Obama’s ability to take credit for approving the action to send Seal Team Six in to take him out was worth a 5-point bounce. So, contrast those examples with this. There’s been less a half point move, and one of those moves has gone the other way. What’s most interesting to me about Trump gaining a little ground in the 5-way polls over the past week is that they’re polls from the same samples that showed Biden gaining a little bit of ground head-to-head. What this shows is that there’s potentially a small group of people who were reluctantly backing Biden that have been turned off by recent events and are opting for a third-party candidate instead. Again, it’s small, it’s five months before an election so take it for what it’s worth but there is an indication that the lawfare at best isn’t moving the needle for Biden and at worst is backfiring for him. On that note, the biggest change of the three data points this week is this.
- What’s happened in the betting markets. At the time the guilty verdict dropped Trump’s odds in the betting markets of becoming the next President of the United States stood at a solid 62%. One week later Trump’s odds are now at a new high for this election cycle and for any election cycle for that matter at a stout 69%. The betting markets have moved 7-points in Trump’s favor over the past week with now over two-thirds of the money moving in Trump’s direction in this year’s race. That’s especially interesting because that’s not just any poll, that’s the poll people are literally putting their money on. Clearly the betting markets believe that Trump’s conviction has backfired politically up to this point. And this raises the question of what may be on July 11th. Will Judge Merchan seek to jail the former and perhaps future President of the United States? If he dares to do so what may the political impact potentially be? What’s happened in the first full week since the conviction could be an early indication. Voters generally and gamblers prominently are seeing the lawfare for what it is.